- Michigan St is a -20.5 point favorite vs. W Michigan
- Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
- TV Channel: FS1
The Western Michigan (0-0) visit Spartan Stadium to take on the Michigan State (0-0) on Aug. 29 in East Lansing, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.
Michigan St is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -20.5 (-110).
The Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Over/Under is 49.5 total points.
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Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Western Michigan | +20.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +900 |
| Michigan State | -20.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -1600 |
Western Michigan vs Michigan State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Michigan State will win this game with 82.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both W Michigan and Michigan St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Western Michigan vs Michigan State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Western Michigan will cover the spread with 58.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Western Michigan Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Western Michigan has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Western Michigan has hit the Game Total Under in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Western Michigan has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.50 Units / 24% ROI)
Michigan State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Michigan State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Michigan State have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.75 Units / 38% ROI)
Western Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State
Western Michigan is 5-13 (.278) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-12th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .476
Western Michigan was 1-3 (.250) when not forcing and recovering a fumble in the 2024 season– T-22nd-worst in FBS; Average: .459
Western Michigan is 10-11 (.476) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .616
Western Michigan is 2-8 (.200) when not forcing and recovering a fumble since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .425
Matchup Notes for Western Michigan vs. Michigan State
Chrishon McCray (MSU) gained 705 yards on 40 receptions (17.6 YPR) last season — 7th-best of Qualified Wide Receiver. Western Michigan’s defense allowed 13.7 Yards Per Reception last season — T-7th-worst among FBS defenses.
Jack Velling (MSU) gained 411 yards on 36 receptions (11.4 YPR) last season — 3rd-best of Qualified Big Ten Tight Ends. Western Michigan’s defense allowed 13.7 Yards Per Reception last season — T-7th-worst among FBS defenses.
Jack Velling (MSU) gained 411 yards on 36 receptions (11.4 YPR) last season — 3rd-best of Qualified Big Ten Tight Ends. Western Michigan’s defense allowed 12.2 Yards Per Reception to TEs last season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends
Western Michigan RBs have no touchdowns on 7 receptions in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 3.2
Western Michigan RBs averaged 176.5 rushing yards per game (2,295/13) in the 2024 season– 8th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 127.1
Western Michigan TEs picked up first downs on 8 receptions in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Western Michigan WRs averaged just 9.2 yards per reception (83 yards/9 catches) on 3rd and long in the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 14.6
Western Michigan WRs were targeted 13.2 times per game (172/13) in the 2024 season– 9th-lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 20.4
Western Michigan Defensive Stats & Trends
Western Michigan has no interceptions (90 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 36.8
Western Michigan has no interceptions (90 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 37.9
Western Michigan has no interceptions and 21 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 9.8
Western Michigan tackled opponents for a loss on just 5 of 66 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– 5th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.
Western Michigan tackled opponents for a loss on just 65 of 500 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) in the 2024 season– T-26th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
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