Virginia Tech vs Florida St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 12

Florida State head coach Mike Norvell enters the field before an NCAA college football game against Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023. (AP Photo/Matt Freed)
(AP Photo/Matt Freed)
  • Florida St is a -13.5 point favorite vs. Virginia Tech
  • Virginia Tech vs. Florida State Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
  • TV Channel: ACCN

Virginia Tech (3-6) visit Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium to take on Florida State (4-5) on Nov. 15 in Tallahassee, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST.

Florida St is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-115).

The Virginia Tech vs. Florida State Over/Under is 54.5 total points.

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Virginia Tech vs. Florida State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Virginia Tech+13.5 -10554.5 -110425
Florida State -13.5 -11554.5 -110-600

Virginia Tech vs Florida State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Florida State will win this game with 79.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Virginia Tech and Florida St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Virginia Tech vs Florida State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida State will cover the spread with 51.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Virginia Tech has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Virginia Tech has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.40 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Virginia Tech has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.35 Units / 3% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 1% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Florida State have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.59 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Florida State have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)

Virginia Tech Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Virginia Tech is 2-7 against the spread this college football season (-5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI).

  • Virginia Tech is 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.55 Units / -39.06% ROI
  • Virginia Tech is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.23% ROI
  • Virginia Tech is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.55 Units / 5.53% ROI

Florida State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida St iss 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI).

  • Florida State is 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.05 Units / -52.97% ROI
  • Florida State is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • Florida State is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Virginia Tech: Keys to the Game vs. Florida State

Virginia Tech TEs had no touchdowns on 1 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Virginia Tech’s offense has thrown for 1,515 passing yards in 8 games (just 189.4 YPG) this season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 210.2 passing yards per game this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.

Virginia Tech’s TEs has gained 183 yards on 20 receptions (just 9.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among ACC TEs. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 7.8 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia Tech’s TEs has 20 receptions in 8 games (just 2.5 per game) this season — T-3rd-worst among ACC TEs. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 17.8 receptions per game this season — best among ACC defenses.

Virginia Tech’s QBs has thrown for 1,516 passing yards in 8 games (just 189.5 YPG) this season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 210.2 passing yards per game this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.

Florida State: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia Tech

Florida State intercepted 4 of 324 attempts (81.0 pass attempts per int.) last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 34.9

Florida State has forced 2 fumbles on 293 carries (146.5 Carries Per Fumble) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 45.4

Florida State has forced 2 fumbles on 293 carries (146.5 Carries Per Fumble) this season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 48.5

Florida State has forced 6 fumbles on 770 carries (128.3 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 43.2

Florida State allowed opponents to catch just 201 of 414 passes (49% Reception Pct) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%

Matchup Notes for Virginia Tech vs. Florida State

Florida State intercepted 4 of 324 attempts (81.0 pass attempts per int.) last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 34.9

Florida State has forced 2 fumbles on 293 carries (146.5 Carries Per Fumble) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 45.4

Florida State has forced 2 fumbles on 293 carries (146.5 Carries Per Fumble) this season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 48.5

Florida State has forced 6 fumbles on 770 carries (128.3 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 43.2

Florida State allowed opponents to catch just 201 of 414 passes (49% Reception Pct) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%

Virginia Tech TEs had no touchdowns on 1 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Virginia Tech’s offense has thrown for 1,515 passing yards in 8 games (just 189.4 YPG) this season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 210.2 passing yards per game this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.

Virginia Tech’s TEs has gained 183 yards on 20 receptions (just 9.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among ACC TEs. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 7.8 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia Tech’s TEs has 20 receptions in 8 games (just 2.5 per game) this season — T-3rd-worst among ACC TEs. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 17.8 receptions per game this season — best among ACC defenses.

Virginia Tech’s QBs has thrown for 1,516 passing yards in 8 games (just 189.5 YPG) this season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 210.2 passing yards per game this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.

Virginia Tech Offensive Stats & Trends

Virginia Tech TEs had no touchdowns on 1 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Virginia Tech’s offense has thrown for 1,515 passing yards in 8 games (just 189.4 YPG) this season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 210.2 passing yards per game this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.

Virginia Tech’s TEs has gained 183 yards on 20 receptions (just 9.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among ACC TEs. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 7.8 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia Tech’s TEs has 20 receptions in 8 games (just 2.5 per game) this season — T-3rd-worst among ACC TEs. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 17.8 receptions per game this season — best among ACC defenses.

Virginia Tech’s QBs has thrown for 1,516 passing yards in 8 games (just 189.5 YPG) this season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 210.2 passing yards per game this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.

Florida State Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida State intercepted 4 of 324 attempts (81.0 pass attempts per int.) last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 34.9

Florida State has forced 2 fumbles on 293 carries (146.5 Carries Per Fumble) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 45.4

Florida State has forced 2 fumbles on 293 carries (146.5 Carries Per Fumble) this season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 48.5

Florida State has forced 6 fumbles on 770 carries (128.3 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 43.2

Florida State allowed opponents to catch just 201 of 414 passes (49% Reception Pct) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%

Virginia Tech Defensive Stats & Trends

Virginia Tech TEs had no touchdowns on 1 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Virginia Tech’s offense has thrown for 1,515 passing yards in 8 games (just 189.4 YPG) this season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 210.2 passing yards per game this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.

Virginia Tech’s TEs has gained 183 yards on 20 receptions (just 9.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among ACC TEs. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 7.8 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia Tech’s TEs has 20 receptions in 8 games (just 2.5 per game) this season — T-3rd-worst among ACC TEs. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 17.8 receptions per game this season — best among ACC defenses.

Virginia Tech’s QBs has thrown for 1,516 passing yards in 8 games (just 189.5 YPG) this season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 210.2 passing yards per game this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.

Florida State Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida State intercepted 4 of 324 attempts (81.0 pass attempts per int.) last season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 34.9

Florida State has forced 2 fumbles on 293 carries (146.5 Carries Per Fumble) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 45.4

Florida State has forced 2 fumbles on 293 carries (146.5 Carries Per Fumble) this season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 48.5

Florida State has forced 6 fumbles on 770 carries (128.3 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 43.2

Florida State allowed opponents to catch just 201 of 414 passes (49% Reception Pct) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%


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