- NC State is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Virginia
- Virginia vs. North Carolina State Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
Virginia (1-0) visit Carter-Finley Stadium to take on North Carolina State (1-0) on Sep. 6 in Raleigh, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
NC State is a betting favorite in Week 2, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Virginia vs. North Carolina State Over/Under is 55.5 total points.
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Virginia vs. North Carolina State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Virginia | +2.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +110 |
| North Carolina State | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -135 |
Virginia vs North Carolina State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts North Carolina State will win this game with 81.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Virginia and NC State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Virginia vs North Carolina State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Virginia will cover the spread with 77.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Virginia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 2 of their last 4 away games (+0.90 Units / 19% ROI)
North Carolina State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- NC State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- NC State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- NC State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- NC State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games (+0.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Virginia is 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Virginia is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 21.28% ROI
- Virginia is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Virginia is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
North Carolina State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
NC State iss 0-1 against the spread this college football season (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).
- North Carolina State is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 19.23% ROI
- North Carolina State is 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- North Carolina State is 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina State
Virginia was 1-5 (.167) when not forcing and recovering a fumble in the 2024 season– T-13th-worst in FBS; Average: .459
Virginia was 1-4 (.200) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs in the 2024 season– T-12th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .460
Virginia was 1-4 (.200) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs in the 2024 season– T-23rd-worst in FBS; Average: .415
Virginia was 1-8 (.111) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .476
North Carolina State: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia
North Carolina State was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble in the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .459
North Carolina State was winless (0-5) when not forcing and recovering a fumble in the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .489
North Carolina State was 2-6 (.250) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2024 season– T-32nd-worst in FBS; Average: .443
North Carolina State was 3-7 (.273) when throwing at least 1 interception in the 2024 season– 15th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .439
Matchup Notes for Virginia vs. North Carolina State
North Carolina State’s WRs has gained 261 yards on 15 receptions (17.4 YPR) this season — 4th-best among ACC WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed just 8.2 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.
North Carolina State’s WRs has gained 261 yards on 15 receptions (17.4 YPR) this season — 8th-best among FBS WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed just 7.9 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina State has gained 318 yards on 24 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — T-30th-best among FBS skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed just 8.2 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.
Virginia’s WRs has gained 267 yards on 16 receptions (16.7 YPR) this season — 5th-best among ACC WRs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception this season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Virginia has gained 290 yards on 22 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — T-5th-best among ACC skill players. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception this season — T-4th-worst among ACC defenses.
Virginia’s WRs has gained 267 yards on 16 receptions (16.7 YPR) this season — 12th-best among FBS WRs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception this season — T-4th-worst among ACC defenses.
Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends
Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1
Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1
Virginia WRs averaged a touchdown every 7.5 receptions (15 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0
Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 4.8 receptions (29 Rec/6 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1
Virginia’s WRs has gained 267 yards on 16 receptions (16.7 YPR) this season — 5th-best among ACC WRs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception this season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Carolina State Offensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina State TEs had 7 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– most among Power Conference Teams
North Carolina State Skill Players caught 12 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– T-most among FBS Teams
North Carolina State RBs averaged 8.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (816 yards / 94 touches) in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5
North Carolina State’s WRs has gained 261 yards on 15 receptions (17.4 YPR) this season — 4th-best among ACC WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed just 8.2 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.
North Carolina State’s WRs has gained 261 yards on 15 receptions (17.4 YPR) this season — 8th-best among FBS WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed just 7.9 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends
Virginia averaged a sack every 34.3 pass attempts (377 Pass Attempts/11 Sacks) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 14.3
Virginia averaged a sack every 34.3 pass attempts (377 Pass Attempts/11 Sacks) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.8
Virginia has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 30 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– 31st-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
Virginia sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (11/377) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Virginia allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on just 9 of their 422 carries (2%) in the 2024 season– 13th-best in FBS; Average: 4%
North Carolina State Defensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina State has allowed 383.0 Passing Yards per game (383/1) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 170.5
North Carolina State allowed a Completion Pct of 77% (27 completions/35 attempts) on third and 10+ yards to go in the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%
North Carolina State has allowed 383 Passing Yards this season– 4th-most among Power Conference Teams
North Carolina State allowed a Completion Pct of 78% (45 completions/58 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go in the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
North Carolina State tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 24 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2024 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.
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