- Missouri is a -4.5 point favorite vs. Virginia
- Virginia vs. Missouri Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
- Gator Bowl TV Channel: ABC
Virginia (10-3) visit EverBank Stadium to take on Missouri (8-4) on Dec. 27 in Jacksonville, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST.
Missouri is a betting favorite in the Gator Bowl, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-102).
The Virginia vs. Missouri Over/Under is 44.5 total points.
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Virginia vs. Missouri Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Virginia | +4.5 -118 | 44.5 -105 | 155 |
| Missouri | -4.5 -102 | 44.5 -115 | -185 |
Virginia vs Missouri Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Missouri will win this game with 65.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Virginia and Missouri, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Virginia vs Missouri Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Virginia will cover the spread with 53.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Virginia Best Bets Today
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+9.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.96 Units / 59% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Game Total Under in their last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.75 Units / 10% ROI)
Missouri Best Bets Today
- Missouri has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Missouri has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- Missouri has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- Missouri has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.83 Units / 28% ROI)
- Missouri has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.57 Units / 25% ROI)
Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Virginia is 8-5 against the spread this college football season (+2.5 Units / 17.48% ROI).
- Virginia is 10-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.75 Units / 9.33% ROI
- Virginia is 5-8 when betting the Over for -3.85 Units / -26.83% ROI
- Virginia is 8-5 when betting the Under for +2.5 Units / 17.54% ROI
Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Missouri iss 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.5 Units / 3.8% ROI).
- Missouri is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 3.62% ROI
- Missouri is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Missouri is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri
Virginia was 3-1 (.750) when in a one score game last season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Virginia is 5-2 (.714) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .449
Virginia was 1-4 (.200) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459
Virginia was 3-7 (.300) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .481
Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia
Missouri was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .604
Missouri was undefeated (5-0) when in a one score game last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Missouri was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .632
Missouri was 6-1 (.857) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season– 8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .631
Matchup Notes for Virginia vs. Missouri
Missouri was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .604
Missouri was undefeated (5-0) when in a one score game last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Missouri was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .632
Missouri was 6-1 (.857) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season– 8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .631
Virginia was 3-1 (.750) when in a one score game last season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Virginia is 5-2 (.714) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .449
Virginia was 1-4 (.200) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459
Virginia was 3-7 (.300) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .481
Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends
Virginia was 3-1 (.750) when in a one score game last season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Virginia is 5-2 (.714) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .449
Virginia was 1-4 (.200) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459
Virginia was 3-7 (.300) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .481
Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends
Missouri was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .604
Missouri was undefeated (5-0) when in a one score game last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Missouri was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .632
Missouri was 6-1 (.857) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season– 8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .631
Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends
Virginia was 3-1 (.750) when in a one score game last season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Virginia is 5-2 (.714) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .449
Virginia was 1-4 (.200) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459
Virginia was 3-7 (.300) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .481
Missouri Defensive Stats & Trends
Missouri was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .604
Missouri was undefeated (5-0) when in a one score game last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514
Missouri was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .632
Missouri was 6-1 (.857) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season– 8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .631
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