- Louisville is a -6.5 point favorite vs. Virginia
- Virginia vs. Louisville Total (Over/Under): 61.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
Virginia (4-1) visit L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium to take on Louisville (4-0) on Oct. 4 in Louisville, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Louisville is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).
The Virginia vs. Louisville Over/Under is 61.5 total points.
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Virginia vs. Louisville Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Virginia | +6.5 -105 | 61.5 -110 | 195 |
| Louisville | -6.5 -115 | 61.5 -110 | -235 |
Virginia vs Louisville Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Louisville will win this game with 72.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Virginia and Louisville, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Virginia vs Louisville Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Louisville will cover the spread with 62.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Virginia Best Bets Today
- Virginia has hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.76 Units / 32% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.35 Units / 11% ROI)
Louisville Best Bets Today
- Louisville has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.15 Units / 8% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+0.40 Units / 0% ROI)
Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Virginia is 4-1 against the spread this college football season (+2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI).
- Virginia is 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.25 Units / 7.18% ROI
- Virginia is 5-0 when betting the Over for +5 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Virginia is 0-5 when betting the Under for -5.5 Units / -100% ROI
Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Louisville iss 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).
- Louisville is 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 5.28% ROI
- Louisville is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
- Louisville is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Louisville
Louisville has sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (10/66) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 7%
Louisville has sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (10/66) this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%
Louisville has allowed opponents to catch just 34 of 66 passes (52% Reception Pct) this season– 5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Louisville has allowed 114.7 Passing Yards per game (344/3) this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 193.7
Louisville has allowed 66.3 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 143.2
Louisville: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia
Louisville has averaged 12.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-4th-best among ACC skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.2 RAC since the 2024 season — T-31st-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville has averaged 12.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-4th-best among ACC skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.2 RAC since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Louisville’s WRs has gained 3,090 yards on 212 receptions (14.6 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-22nd-best among FBS WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst among ACC defenses.
Louisville has gained 4,200 yards on 333 receptions (12.6 YPR) since the 2024 season — 4th-best among ACC skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s WRs has gained 3,090 yards on 212 receptions (14.6 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-22nd-best among FBS WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2024 season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Matchup Notes for Virginia vs. Louisville
Louisville has averaged 12.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-4th-best among ACC skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.2 RAC since the 2024 season — T-31st-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville has averaged 12.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-4th-best among ACC skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.2 RAC since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Louisville’s WRs has gained 3,090 yards on 212 receptions (14.6 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-22nd-best among FBS WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst among ACC defenses.
Louisville has gained 4,200 yards on 333 receptions (12.6 YPR) since the 2024 season — 4th-best among ACC skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s WRs has gained 3,090 yards on 212 receptions (14.6 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-22nd-best among FBS WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2024 season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville has sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (10/66) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 7%
Louisville has sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (10/66) this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%
Louisville has allowed opponents to catch just 34 of 66 passes (52% Reception Pct) this season– 5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Louisville has allowed 114.7 Passing Yards per game (344/3) this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 193.7
Louisville has allowed 66.3 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 143.2
Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends
Louisville has sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (10/66) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 7%
Louisville has sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (10/66) this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%
Louisville has allowed opponents to catch just 34 of 66 passes (52% Reception Pct) this season– 5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Louisville has allowed 114.7 Passing Yards per game (344/3) this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 193.7
Louisville has allowed 66.3 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 143.2
Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends
Louisville has averaged 12.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-4th-best among ACC skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.2 RAC since the 2024 season — T-31st-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville has averaged 12.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-4th-best among ACC skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.2 RAC since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Louisville’s WRs has gained 3,090 yards on 212 receptions (14.6 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-22nd-best among FBS WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst among ACC defenses.
Louisville has gained 4,200 yards on 333 receptions (12.6 YPR) since the 2024 season — 4th-best among ACC skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s WRs has gained 3,090 yards on 212 receptions (14.6 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-22nd-best among FBS WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2024 season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends
Louisville has sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (10/66) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 7%
Louisville has sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (10/66) this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%
Louisville has allowed opponents to catch just 34 of 66 passes (52% Reception Pct) this season– 5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Louisville has allowed 114.7 Passing Yards per game (344/3) this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 193.7
Louisville has allowed 66.3 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 143.2
Louisville Defensive Stats & Trends
Louisville has averaged 12.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-4th-best among ACC skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.2 RAC since the 2024 season — T-31st-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville has averaged 12.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-4th-best among ACC skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.2 RAC since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Louisville’s WRs has gained 3,090 yards on 212 receptions (14.6 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-22nd-best among FBS WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst among ACC defenses.
Louisville has gained 4,200 yards on 333 receptions (12.6 YPR) since the 2024 season — 4th-best among ACC skill players. Virginia’s defense has allowed 12.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s WRs has gained 3,090 yards on 212 receptions (14.6 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-22nd-best among FBS WRs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2024 season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.
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