Virginia vs Duke Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

• Duke is a -4 point favorite vs. Virginia
• Virginia vs. Duke Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN2

Virginia (8-2) visit Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium to take on Duke (5-4) on Nov. 15 in Durham, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

Duke is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).

The Virginia vs. Duke Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

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Virginia vs. Duke Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Virginia vs Duke Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Duke will win this game with 62.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Virginia and Duke, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

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Virginia Best Bets Today

• Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.71 Units / 36% ROI)
• Virginia has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+5.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.75 Units / 5% ROI)
• Virginia has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 32% ROI)
• Virginia has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)

Duke Best Bets Today

• Duke has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
• Duke has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.84 Units / 28% ROI)
• Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• Duke has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.65 Units / 33% ROI)
• Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games at home (+1.05 Units / 2% ROI)

Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Virginia is 6-4 against the spread this college football season (+1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI).

• Virginia is 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.75 Units / 8.75% ROI
• Virginia is 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.55 Units / -4.98% ROI
• Virginia is 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.57% ROI

Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Duke iss 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.45 Units / -14.72% ROI).

• Duke is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -15.87% ROI
• Duke is 7-2 when betting the Over for +4.8 Units / 48.24% ROI
• Duke is 2-7 when betting the Under for -5.65 Units / -57.36% ROI

Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Duke

Duke has tackled opponents for a loss on 69 of 281 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Duke has tackled opponents for a loss on 69 of 281 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Duke tackled opponents for a loss on 18 of 76 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Duke has tackled opponents for a loss on 172 of 800 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) since the 2024 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Duke had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) last week– T-worst in FBS; Average: 37.7

Duke: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia

Virginia is winless (0-4) when losing at least one fumble since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .447

Virginia was 1-5 (.167) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Virginia is winless (0-4) when losing at least one fumble since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .438

Virginia is 1-4 (.200) when averaging less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2024 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .408

Matchup Notes for Virginia vs. Duke

Virginia is winless (0-4) when losing at least one fumble since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .447

Virginia was 1-5 (.167) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Virginia is winless (0-4) when losing at least one fumble since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .438

Virginia is 1-4 (.200) when averaging less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2024 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .408

Duke has tackled opponents for a loss on 69 of 281 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Duke has tackled opponents for a loss on 69 of 281 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Duke tackled opponents for a loss on 18 of 76 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Duke has tackled opponents for a loss on 172 of 800 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) since the 2024 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Duke had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) last week– T-worst in FBS; Average: 37.7

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends

Duke has tackled opponents for a loss on 69 of 281 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Duke has tackled opponents for a loss on 69 of 281 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Duke tackled opponents for a loss on 18 of 76 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Duke has tackled opponents for a loss on 172 of 800 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) since the 2024 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Duke had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) last week– T-worst in FBS; Average: 37.7

Duke Offensive Stats & Trends

Virginia is winless (0-4) when losing at least one fumble since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .447

Virginia was 1-5 (.167) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Virginia is winless (0-4) when losing at least one fumble since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .438

Virginia is 1-4 (.200) when averaging less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2024 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .408

Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends

Duke has tackled opponents for a loss on 69 of 281 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Duke has tackled opponents for a loss on 69 of 281 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Duke tackled opponents for a loss on 18 of 76 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Duke has tackled opponents for a loss on 172 of 800 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) since the 2024 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Duke had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) last week– T-worst in FBS; Average: 37.7

Duke Defensive Stats & Trends

Virginia is winless (0-4) when losing at least one fumble since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .447

Virginia was 1-5 (.167) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Virginia is winless (0-4) when losing at least one fumble since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .438

Virginia is 1-4 (.200) when averaging less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2024 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .408

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