Vanderbilt vs Texas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Oct 28, 2025, 9:28 PM

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FILE - Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian looks on before the Sugar Bowl CFP NCAA semifinal college football game against Washington, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024, in New Orleans. Sarkisian’s contract extension will push his guaranteed salary to $10.3 million this year under details released by the school's Board of Regents. That will make him one of the highest paid coaches in the country after leading the Longhorns to the Big 12 championship and their first appearance in the College Football Playoff (AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman, File)

(AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)

Texas is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt vs. Texas Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

Vanderbilt (7-1) visit Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium to take on Texas (6-2) on Nov. 1 in Austin, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Texas is a betting favorite in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Vanderbilt vs. Texas Over/Under is 44.5 total points.

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Vanderbilt vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Vanderbilt	+2.5 -110	44.5 -105	115
Texas	-2.5 -110	44.5 -115	-140

Vanderbilt vs Texas Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 57.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Vanderbilt and Texas, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Vanderbilt vs Texas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Vanderbilt will cover the spread with 52.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Vanderbilt Best Bets Today

Vanderbilt has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+8.35 Units / 22% ROI)
Vanderbilt have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.45 Units / 42% ROI)
Vanderbilt has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+6.20 Units / 9% ROI)
Vanderbilt have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Vanderbilt has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.70 Units / 40% ROI)

Texas Best Bets Today

Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+5.10 Units / 5% ROI)
Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.70 Units / 1% ROI)
Texas has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.50 Units / 38% ROI)
Texas has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+3.45 Units / 5% ROI)
Texas has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.40 Units / 19% ROI)

Vanderbilt Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Vanderbilt is 6-2 against the spread this college football season (+3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI).

Vanderbilt is 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.45 Units / 8.42% ROI
Vanderbilt is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
Vanderbilt is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas iss 2-6 against the spread this college football season (-4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI).

Texas is 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0.41% ROI
Texas is 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
Texas is 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI

Vanderbilt: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

Vanderbilt WRs averaged just 6.6 receptions per game (86/13) last season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.0

Vanderbilt WRs have averaged just 3.0 receptions per game (24/8) in the 2nd half this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 5.8

Vanderbilt RBs have averaged 7.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (1,199 yards / 153 touches) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4

Vanderbilt has gained 1,778 yards on 140 receptions (12.7 YPR) this season — T-30th-best among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-best among SEC defenses.

Vanderbilt RBs have averaged 8.6 Yards per Carry (302 yards/35 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.9

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt is undefeated (7-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .643

Vanderbilt was 1-8 (.111) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team in the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .582

Vanderbilt is 7-4 (.636) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2024 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .436

Vanderbilt was 2-6 (.250) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Matchup Notes for Vanderbilt vs. Texas