UTEP vs Texas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 3

FILE - Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian looks on before the Sugar Bowl CFP NCAA semifinal college football game against Washington, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024, in New Orleans. Sarkisianโ€™s contract extension will push his guaranteed salary to $10.3 million this year under details released by the school's Board of Regents. That will make him one of the highest paid coaches in the country after leading the Longhorns to the Big 12 championship and their first appearance in the College Football Playoff (AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman, File)
(AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)
  • Texas is a -41.5 point favorite vs. UTEP
  • UTEP vs. Texas Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
  • TV Channel: SECN

UTEP (1-1) visit DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium to take on Texas (1-1) on Sep. 13 in Austin, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15pm EDT.

Texas is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -41.5 (-110).

The UTEP vs. Texas Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

Bet now on Texas vs UTEP & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

UTEP vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
UTEP+41.5 -11050.5 -105
Texas -41.5 -11050.5 -115

UTEP vs Texas Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UTEP will win this game with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both UTEP and Texas, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UTEP vs Texas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas will cover the spread with 61.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


Bet now on Texas vs UTEP and all games with BetMGM


  • UTEP has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • UTEP has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • UTEP has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.50 Units / 6% ROI)
  • UTEP has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.45 Units / 5% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.15 Units / 2% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Texas have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games (+4.65 Units / 1% ROI)
  • Texas has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.50 Units / 26% ROI)

UTEP Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UTEP is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • UTEP is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • UTEP is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • UTEP is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas iss 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Texas is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
  • Texas is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Texas is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI

UTEP: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

UTEP is winless (0-9) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .382

UTEP was 2-9 (.182) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: .454

UTEP was 2-8 (.200) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: .479

UTEP was 1-8 (.111) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– 8th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .390

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. UTEP

Texas was 10-2 (.833) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .442

Texas was 10-3 (.769) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– 15th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Texas was 10-2 (.833) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Texas was 13-2 (.867) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– 8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .618

Matchup Notes for UTEP vs. Texas

Texas’s WRs has gained 3,162 yards on 213 receptions (14.8 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-20th-best among FBS WRs. UTEP’s defense has allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — T-33rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas’s WRs has averaged 14.8 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-17th-best among FBS WRs. UTEP’s defense has allowed 12.4 RAC since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas’s TEs has gained 157 yards on 8 receptions (19.6 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among SEC TEs. UTEP’s defense has allowed 12.3 Yards Per Reception this season — 34th-worst among FBS defenses.

UTEP’s WRs has averaged just 11.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 10.1 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.

UTEP’s WRs has averaged just 11.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among P5 defenses.

UTEP’s WRs has averaged just 11.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.

UTEP Offensive Stats & Trends

UTEP’s WRs has averaged just 11.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 10.1 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.

UTEP’s WRs has averaged just 11.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among P5 defenses.

UTEP’s WRs has averaged just 11.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.

UTEP has averaged just 11.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.6 RAC since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among P5 defenses.

UTEP’s WRs has averaged 25.5 targets per game this season — T-21st-highest among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed 15.0 receptions per game to WRs this season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas WRs averaged 23.8 yards per reception (476 yards/20 catches) on 3rd and long last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

Texas QBs had 25 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down last season– most among FBS Teams

Texas QBs had 79 completions for 20 or more yards last season– T-most among FBS Teams

Texas QBs have 27 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down since the 2024 season– most among FBS Teams

Texas Skill Players had 80 receptions for 20 or more yards last season– most among FBS Teams

UTEP Defensive Stats & Trends

UTEP has tackled opponents for a loss on 13 of 33 rushing attempts (39% TFL%) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

UTEP has tackled opponents for a loss on 13 of 33 rushing attempts (39% TFL%) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

UTEP has averaged 6.0 sacks per game this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 2.1

UTEP has sacked opposing QBs on 21% of pass attempts (6/28) this season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

UTEP has sacked opposing QBs on 11% of pass attempts (46/414) since the 2024 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Texas Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas opponents averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (489 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) last season– best in FBS; Average: 20.6

Texas opponents averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (489 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.7

Texas opponents has averaged 55.2 Passing Attempts per TD (552 Pass Attempts/10 Passing TDs) since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22.6

Texas opponents averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best in the SEC; Average: 4.5

Texas allowed 9 touchdowns on 292 completions (32.4 Completions Per TD) last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.2


Bet now on Texas vs UTEP and all games with BetMGM


More College Football Betting at BetMGM

BetMGM is the best online sportsbook for college football betting.

Whether youโ€™re a first-time bettor checking out the best sportsbook promos, a casual fan betting on Georgia football national championship odds, Michigan football odds, or Ohio State playoff odds, or a longtime diehard breaking down trends for live sports betting, there are entertainment options for everyone.

Visit the sportsbook today to place a college football bet online!

The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.

About the Author Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.