Utah vs UCLA Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 1

UCLA running back TJ Harden (25) runs during an NCAA college football game against Stanford, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, in Stanford, Calif. (AP Photo/Scot Tucker)
(AP Photo/Scot Tucker)
  • Utah is a -6 point favorite vs. UCLA
  • Utah vs. UCLA Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
  • TV Channel: FOX

The Utah (0-0) visit Rose Bowl to take on the UCLA (0-0) on Aug. 30 in Pasadena, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 11:00pm EDT.

Utah is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -6 (-115).

The Utah vs. UCLA Over/Under is 51.5 total points.

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Utah vs. UCLA Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Utah-6 -11551.5 -105-235
UCLA +6 -10551.5 -115+190

Utah vs UCLA Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Utah will win this game with 65.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Utah and UCLA, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Utah vs UCLA Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Utah will cover the spread with 58.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.



  • Utah has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Utah has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Utah has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.65 Units / 24% ROI)
  • UCLA has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+5.20 Units / 66% ROI)
  • UCLA has hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • UCLA has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • UCLA have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)
  • UCLA has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.35 Units / 19% ROI)

Utah: Keys to the Game vs. UCLA

Utah was 3-6 (.333) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2024 season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .532

Utah is 1-8 (.111) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .293

Utah was 3-6 (.333) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2024 season– T-8th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .577

Utah is 10-3 (.769) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– 40th-best in FBS; Average: .666

UCLA: Keys to the Game vs. Utah

UCLA was 2-5 (.286) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2024 season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .454

UCLA was 2-7 (.222) when not forcing and recovering a fumble in the 2024 season– 9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .489

UCLA is 2-6 (.250) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-32nd-worst in FBS; Average: .380

UCLA is 2-6 (.250) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .423

Matchup Notes for Utah vs. UCLA

UCLA’s TEs had 64 receptions in 12 games (5.3 per game) last season — 5th-best among Big Ten TEs. Utah’s defense allowed just 2.3 receptions per game to TEs last season — T-12th-best among FBS defenses.

UCLA’s TEs had 64 receptions in 12 games (5.3 per game) last season — 5th-best among Big Ten TEs. Utah’s defense allowed just 16.6 receptions per game last season — T-2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.

UCLA’s WRs had just 127.8 receiving yards per game last season — 24th-worst among FBS WRs. Utah’s defense allowed just 200.2 receiving yards per game last season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Utah’s TEs had 55 receptions in 12 games (4.6 per game) last season — best among Big 12 TEs. UCLA’s defense allowed 22.4 receptions per game last season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Utah’s TEs gained 744 yards on 55 receptions (13.5 YPR) last season — best among Big 12 TEs. UCLA’s defense allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception last season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.

Utah’s TEs had 55 receptions in 12 games (4.6 per game) last season — best among Big 12 TEs. UCLA’s defense allowed 22.4 receptions per game last season — 7th-worst among FBS defenses.

Utah Offensive Stats & Trends

Utah TEs had 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Utah WRs averaged a touchdown every 26.0 receptions (104 Rec/4 TDs) in the 2024 season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.0

Utah WRs averaged a touchdown every 26.0 receptions (104 Rec/4 TDs) in the 2024 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.0

Utah TEs caught 6 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– most among Power Conference Teams

Utah WRs had just one touchdown on 7 receptions in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– 6th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

UCLA Offensive Stats & Trends

UCLA TEs have averaged 13.3 yards per reception (1,157 yards/87 catches) since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.8

UCLA TEs averaged 18.7 yards per reception (431 yards/23 catches) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.6

UCLA’s TEs had 64 receptions in 12 games (5.3 per game) last season — 5th-best among Big Ten TEs. Utah’s defense allowed just 2.3 receptions per game to TEs last season — T-12th-best among FBS defenses.

UCLA RBs rushed for 3 TDs on 234 carries (78 Carries Per TD) in the 2024 season– 5th-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.4

UCLA RBs averaged 75.8 rushing yards per game (909/12) in the 2024 season– T-7th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 127.1

Utah Defensive Stats & Trends

Utah has allowed first downs on 18% of rush attempts since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 23%

Utah tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 23 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

Utah has tackled opponents for a loss on 8 of 38 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 11%.

Utah has allowed 318.0 yards from scrimmage per game since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 383.5

Utah tackled opponents for a loss on 81 of 404 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) in the 2024 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

UCLA Defensive Stats & Trends

UCLA has tackled opponents for a loss on 34 of 134 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 15%.

UCLA has tackled opponents for a loss on 34 of 134 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 14%.

UCLA has tackled opponents for a loss on 34 of 134 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

UCLA allowed 4 rushing TDs on 54 carries (13.5 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.7

UCLA has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on just 7 of their 741 carries (1%) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 3%



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