Utah St vs UNLV Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 12

UNLV offensive lineman Leif Fautanu (79) rests his helmet on the turf before the NCAA college football game against Notre Dame, Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022, in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Marc Lebryk)
(AP Photo/Marc Lebryk)
  • UNLV is a -6 point favorite vs. Utah St
  • Utah State vs. UNLV Total (Over/Under): 71.5 points
  • TV Channel: CBSN

Utah State (5-4) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on UNLV (7-2) on Nov. 15 in Paradise, NV. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST.

UNLV is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).

The Utah State vs. UNLV Over/Under is 71.5 total points.

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Utah State vs. UNLV Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Utah State+6 -11071.5 -115190
UNLV -6 -11071.5 -105-235

Utah State vs UNLV Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UNLV will win this game with 62.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Utah St and UNLV, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Utah State vs UNLV Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UNLV will cover the spread with 55.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Utah State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Utah State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Utah State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Utah State have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Utah State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • UNLV has hit the Team Total Over in their last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • UNLV has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.45 Units / 10% ROI)
  • UNLV has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • UNLV has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.40 Units / 9% ROI)
  • UNLV have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.40 Units / 9% ROI)

Utah State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Utah St is 6-2 against the spread this college football season (+3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI).

  • Utah State is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 3.28% ROI
  • Utah State is 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
  • Utah State is 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI

UNLV Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UNLV iss 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI).

  • UNLV is 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.45 Units / 10.28% ROI
  • UNLV is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • UNLV is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Utah State: Keys to the Game vs. UNLV

UNLV was 8-1 (.889) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

UNLV was 11-3 (.786) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .575

UNLV was 8-1 (.889) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: .668

UNLV was 10-2 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .552

UNLV: Keys to the Game vs. Utah State

UNLV RBs rushed for 7 TDs on 67 carries (9.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 7th-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.5

UNLV’s WRs have 195.6 receiving yards per game this season — T-32nd-best among FBS WRs. Utah State’s defense has allowed 243.1 receiving yards per game this season — 32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV RBs have averaged 7.9 Yards per Carry (464 yards/59 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

UNLV’s QBs has thrown for 4,611 passing yards in 23 games (just 200.5 YPG) since the 2024 season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Utah State’s defense has allowed 250.2 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV RBs averaged 11.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (181 yards / 16 touches) in the 1st half last week– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Matchup Notes for Utah State vs. UNLV

UNLV RBs rushed for 7 TDs on 67 carries (9.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 7th-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.5

UNLV’s WRs have 195.6 receiving yards per game this season — T-32nd-best among FBS WRs. Utah State’s defense has allowed 243.1 receiving yards per game this season — 32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV RBs have averaged 7.9 Yards per Carry (464 yards/59 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

UNLV’s QBs has thrown for 4,611 passing yards in 23 games (just 200.5 YPG) since the 2024 season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Utah State’s defense has allowed 250.2 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV RBs averaged 11.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (181 yards / 16 touches) in the 1st half last week– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

UNLV was 8-1 (.889) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

UNLV was 11-3 (.786) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .575

UNLV was 8-1 (.889) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: .668

UNLV was 10-2 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .552

Utah State Offensive Stats & Trends

UNLV was 8-1 (.889) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

UNLV was 11-3 (.786) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .575

UNLV was 8-1 (.889) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: .668

UNLV was 10-2 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .552

UNLV Offensive Stats & Trends

UNLV RBs rushed for 7 TDs on 67 carries (9.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 7th-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.5

UNLV’s WRs have 195.6 receiving yards per game this season — T-32nd-best among FBS WRs. Utah State’s defense has allowed 243.1 receiving yards per game this season — 32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV RBs have averaged 7.9 Yards per Carry (464 yards/59 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

UNLV’s QBs has thrown for 4,611 passing yards in 23 games (just 200.5 YPG) since the 2024 season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Utah State’s defense has allowed 250.2 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV RBs averaged 11.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (181 yards / 16 touches) in the 1st half last week– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Utah State Defensive Stats & Trends

UNLV was 8-1 (.889) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

UNLV was 11-3 (.786) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .575

UNLV was 8-1 (.889) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: .668

UNLV was 10-2 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .552

UNLV Defensive Stats & Trends

UNLV RBs rushed for 7 TDs on 67 carries (9.6 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone last season– 7th-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.5

UNLV’s WRs have 195.6 receiving yards per game this season — T-32nd-best among FBS WRs. Utah State’s defense has allowed 243.1 receiving yards per game this season — 32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV RBs have averaged 7.9 Yards per Carry (464 yards/59 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

UNLV’s QBs has thrown for 4,611 passing yards in 23 games (just 200.5 YPG) since the 2024 season — 32nd-worst among FBS teams. Utah State’s defense has allowed 250.2 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

UNLV RBs averaged 11.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (181 yards / 16 touches) in the 1st half last week– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0


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