Utah vs Baylor Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 14, 2025, 11:36 AM

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Baylor head coach Dave Aranda yells from the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Albany in Waco, Texas, Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

(AP Photo/LM Otero)

Utah is a -8.5 point favorite vs. Baylor
Utah vs. Baylor Total (Over/Under): 60.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN2

Utah (7-2) visit McLane Stadium to take on Baylor (5-4) on Nov. 15 in Waco, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST.

Utah is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-105).

The Utah vs. Baylor Over/Under is 60.5 total points.

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Utah vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Utah	-8.5 -105	60.5 -110	-300
Baylor	+8.5 -115	60.5 -110	240

Utah vs Baylor Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Utah will win this game with 73.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Utah and Baylor, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Utah vs Baylor Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Utah will cover the spread with 56.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Utah Best Bets Today

Utah have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
Utah has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 8% ROI)
Utah has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.75 Units / 27% ROI)
Utah has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Utah has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 25% ROI)

Baylor Best Bets Today

Baylor has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
Baylor has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+1.90 Units / 1% ROI)
Baylor has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Baylor has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Baylor has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.30 Units / 4% ROI)

Utah Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Utah is 7-2 against the spread this college football season (+4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI).

Utah is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.35 Units / 4.59% ROI
Utah is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
Utah is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor iss 2-7 against the spread this college football season (-5.85 Units / -58.21% ROI).

Baylor is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.88% ROI
Baylor is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
Baylor is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Utah: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

Utah is 7-1 (.875) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .685

Utah is winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .287

Utah is 11-3 (.786) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2024 season– 28th-best in FBS; Average: .633

Utah is 11-4 (.733) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2024 season– T-39th-best in FBS; Average: .634

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Utah

Baylor Skill Players have 12 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among Big 12 Teams

Baylor’s QBs has thrown for 2,547 passing yards in 8 games (318.4 YPG) this season — T-4th-best among FBS teams. Utah’s defense has allowed just 156.8 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s WRs has 309 receptions in 21 games (14.7 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-best among Big 12 WRs. Utah’s defense has allowed just 15.4 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

Baylor TEs have 5 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among Power Conference Teams

Matchup Notes for Utah vs. Baylor

Baylor Skill Players have 12 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among Big 12 Teams

Baylor TEs have 5 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among Power Conference Teams

Utah is 7-1 (.875) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .685

Utah is winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .287

Utah is 11-3 (.786) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2024 season– 28th-best in FBS; Average: .633

Utah is 11-4 (.733) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2024 season– T-39th-best in FBS; Average: .634

Utah Offensive Stats & Trends

Utah is 7-1 (.875) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .685

Utah is winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .287

Utah is 11-3 (.786) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2024 season– 28th-best in FBS; Average: .633

Utah is 11-4 (.733) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2024 season– T-39th-best in FBS; Average: .634

Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends

Baylor Skill Players have 12 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among Big 12 Teams

Baylor TEs have 5 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among Power Conference Teams

Utah Defensive Stats & Trends

Utah is 7-1 (.875) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .685

Utah is winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2024 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .287

Utah is 11-3 (.786) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2024 season– 28th-best in FBS; Average: .633

Utah is 11-4 (.733) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2024 season– T-39th-best in FBS; Average: .634

Baylor Defensive Stats & Trends

Baylor Skill Players have 12 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among Big 12 Teams

Baylor TEs have 5 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– most among Power Conference Teams

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