USC vs Illinois Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

BetMGM Betting Sep 26, 2025, 10:11 AM

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Illinois head coach Bret Bielema watches from the sideline during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Iowa, Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023, in Iowa City, Iowa. Iowa won 15-13. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

USC is a -6.5 point favorite vs. Illinois
USC vs. Illinois Total (Over/Under): 60.5 points
TV Channel: FOX

USC (4-0) visit Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) to take on Illinois (3-1) on Sep. 27 in Champaign, IL. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

USC is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).

The USC vs. Illinois Over/Under is 60.5 total points.

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USC vs. Illinois Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
USC	-6.5 -115	60.5 -105	-250
Illinois	+6.5 -105	60.5 -115	200

USC vs Illinois Prediction:

The winning team model predicts USC will win this game with 67.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both USC and Illinois, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

USC vs Illinois Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts USC will cover the spread with 59.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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USC Best Bets Today

USC have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.45 Units / 34% ROI)
USC has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
USC has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+5.00 Units / 75% ROI)
USC has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 8% ROI)
USC has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)

Illinois Best Bets Today

Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 9% ROI)
Illinois has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+6.60 Units / 11% ROI)
Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.90 Units / 9% ROI)
Illinois have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.65 Units / 33% ROI)
Illinois has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.90 Units / 48% ROI)

USC Against the Spread (ATS) Record

USC is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

USC is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 4.2% ROI
USC is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
USC is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI

Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Illinois iss 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).

Illinois is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 2.11% ROI
Illinois is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Illinois is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

USC: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois

USC TEs had no touchdowns on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

USC Skill Players have averaged 18.7 yards per reception (974 yards/52 catches) in the 1st half this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.9

USC has gained 1,326 yards on 81 receptions (16.4 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among Power 5 skill players. Illinois’s defense has allowed 11.6 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

USC TEs have gained no yards on 1 receptions (0.0 YPR) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.7

USC has gained 1,326 yards on 81 receptions (16.4 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten skill players. Illinois’s defense has allowed 11.6 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. USC

Illinois’s WRs has averaged 14.3 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 5th-best among Big Ten WRs. USC’s defense has allowed just 11.6 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.

Illinois has 284 receptions in 17 games (just 16.7 per game) since the 2024 season — 35th-worst among FBS skill players. USC’s defense has allowed 22.2 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among P5 defenses.

Illinois has 284 receptions in 17 games (just 16.7 per game) since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten skill players. USC’s defense has allowed 22.2 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among P5 defenses.

Illinois has 284 receptions in 17 games (just 16.7 per game) since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten skill players. USC’s defense has allowed 4.4 receptions per game to TEs since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among FBS defenses.

Matchup Notes for USC vs. Illinois

USC TEs had no touchdowns on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

USC Skill Players have averaged 18.7 yards per reception (974 yards/52 catches) in the 1st half this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.9

USC TEs have gained no yards on 1 receptions (0.0 YPR) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.7

USC Offensive Stats & Trends

USC TEs had no touchdowns on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

USC Skill Players have averaged 18.7 yards per reception (974 yards/52 catches) in the 1st half this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.9

USC TEs have gained no yards on 1 receptions (0.0 YPR) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.7

Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends

USC Defensive Stats & Trends

USC TEs had no touchdowns on 5 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

USC Skill Players have averaged 18.7 yards per reception (974 yards/52 catches) in the 1st half this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.9

USC TEs have gained no yards on 1 receptions (0.0 YPR) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.7

Illinois Defensive Stats & Trends

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