UNLV vs Boise St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Mountain West Championship

Footballs sit ready on the field before an NCAA football game on Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in Muncie, Ind. (AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)
(AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)
  • Boise St is a -4.5 point favorite vs. UNLV
  • UNLV vs. Boise State Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
  • TV Channel: FOX

UNLV (10-2) visit Albertsons Stadium to take on Boise State (8-4) on Dec. 5 in Boise, ID. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST.

Boise St is a betting favorite in Week 15, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The UNLV vs. Boise State Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

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UNLV vs. Boise State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
UNLV+4.5 -11058.5 -105160
Boise State -4.5 -11058.5 -115-190

UNLV vs Boise State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Boise State will win this game with 59.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both UNLV and Boise St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UNLV vs Boise State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UNLV will cover the spread with 51.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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UNLV Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UNLV is 7-5 against the spread this college football season (+1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI).

  • UNLV is 10-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.45 Units / 14.99% ROI
  • UNLV is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • UNLV is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI

Boise State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Boise St iss 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.6 Units / 19.7% ROI).

  • Boise State is 8-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.5 Units / -4.92% ROI
  • Boise State is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.65 Units / -4.91% ROI
  • Boise State is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.56% ROI

UNLV: Keys to the Game vs. Boise State

Boise State was undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– best in FBS; Average: .429

Boise State was undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .388

Boise State was undefeated (5-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .668

Boise State was 12-2 (.857) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .526

Boise State: Keys to the Game vs. UNLV

UNLV has allowed 61.0 receiving yards per game (610/10) to RBs this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 25.5

UNLV has allowed 8.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (4,483 yards / 535 touches) this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 6.9

UNLV has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 23 of their 335 carries (7%) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4%

UNLV has allowed 8.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (4,483 yards / 535 touches) this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 6.7

UNLV allowed passes of 40+ yards on 21 of 398 attempts (5%) in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 2%

Matchup Notes for UNLV vs. Boise State

UNLV has allowed 61.0 receiving yards per game (610/10) to RBs this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 25.5

UNLV has allowed 8.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (4,483 yards / 535 touches) this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 6.9

UNLV has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 23 of their 335 carries (7%) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4%

UNLV has allowed 8.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (4,483 yards / 535 touches) this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 6.7

UNLV allowed passes of 40+ yards on 21 of 398 attempts (5%) in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 2%

Boise State was undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– best in FBS; Average: .429

Boise State was undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .388

Boise State was undefeated (5-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .668

Boise State was 12-2 (.857) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .526

UNLV Offensive Stats & Trends

Boise State was undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– best in FBS; Average: .429

Boise State was undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .388

Boise State was undefeated (5-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .668

Boise State was 12-2 (.857) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .526

Boise State Offensive Stats & Trends

UNLV has allowed 61.0 receiving yards per game (610/10) to RBs this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 25.5

UNLV has allowed 8.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (4,483 yards / 535 touches) this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 6.9

UNLV has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 23 of their 335 carries (7%) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4%

UNLV has allowed 8.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (4,483 yards / 535 touches) this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 6.7

UNLV allowed passes of 40+ yards on 21 of 398 attempts (5%) in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 2%

UNLV Defensive Stats & Trends

Boise State was undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– best in FBS; Average: .429

Boise State was undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .388

Boise State was undefeated (5-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .668

Boise State was 12-2 (.857) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .526

Boise State Defensive Stats & Trends

UNLV has allowed 61.0 receiving yards per game (610/10) to RBs this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 25.5

UNLV has allowed 8.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (4,483 yards / 535 touches) this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 6.9

UNLV has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 23 of their 335 carries (7%) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4%

UNLV has allowed 8.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (4,483 yards / 535 touches) this season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 6.7

UNLV allowed passes of 40+ yards on 21 of 398 attempts (5%) in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 2%


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