UL Monroe vs UTEP Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 4

Footballs sit ready on the field before an NCAA football game on Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in Muncie, Ind. (AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)
(AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)
  • UTEP is a -6.5 point favorite vs. UL Monroe
  • UL Monroe vs. UTEP Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN+

UL Monroe (1-1) visit Sun Bowl to take on UTEP (1-2) on Sep. 20 in El Paso, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EDT.

UTEP is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The UL Monroe vs. UTEP Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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UL Monroe vs. UTEP Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
UL Monroe+6.5 -11046.5 -105195
UTEP -6.5 -11046.5 -115-235

UL Monroe vs UTEP Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UTEP will win this game with 77.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both UL Monroe and UTEP, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UL Monroe vs UTEP Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UTEP will cover the spread with 66.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • UL Monroe has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+5.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • UL Monroe has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • UL – Monroe have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.35 Units / 19% ROI)
  • UL – Monroe has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 9 games (+2.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • UL – Monroe has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.50 Units / 12% ROI)
  • UTEP has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • UTEP has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • UTEP has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.90 Units / 24% ROI)
  • UTEP has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • UTEP have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.85 Units / 15% ROI)

UL Monroe Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UL Monroe is 0-1 against the spread this college football season (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

  • UL Monroe is 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • UL Monroe is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • UL Monroe is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

UTEP Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UTEP iss 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • UTEP is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • UTEP is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • UTEP is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

UL Monroe: Keys to the Game vs. UTEP

Louisiana-Monroe was winless (0-5) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .536

Louisiana-Monroe was winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .259

Louisiana-Monroe was 1-8 (.111) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– 6th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .385

Louisiana-Monroe was 3-8 (.273) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-38th-worst in FBS; Average: .442

UTEP: Keys to the Game vs. UL Monroe

UTEP was winless (0-8) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .400

UTEP was winless (0-8) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .379

UTEP was 1-8 (.111) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-6th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .462

UTEP was 2-10 (.167) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-18th-worst in FBS; Average: .420

Matchup Notes for UL Monroe vs. UTEP

UTEP’s TEs has 13 receptions in 14 games (just 0.9 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among FBS TEs. Louisiana-Monroe’s defense has allowed just 16.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

UTEP’s TEs has 1 receptions in 3 games (just 0.3 per game) this season — T-4th-worst among FBS TEs. Louisiana-Monroe’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game this season — 34th-worst among FBS defenses.

UTEP’s RBs has rushed for 1,382 yards on 353 carries (just 3.9 YPC) since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among FBS RBs. Louisiana-Monroe’s defense have allowed 5.8 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.

Louisiana-Monroe’s WRs has 15 receptions in 2 games (just 7.5 per game) this season — T-12th-worst among FBS WRs. UTEP’s defense has allowed just 9.3 receptions per game to WRs this season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.

Louisiana-Monroe’s WRs have just 66.5 receiving yards per game this season — 5th-worst among FBS WRs. UTEP’s defense has allowed just 112.3 receiving yards per game to WRs this season — 33rd-best among FBS defenses.

Louisiana-Monroe’s RBs have just 13.8 receiving yards per game since the 2024 season — T-12th-worst among FBS RBs. UTEP’s defense has allowed 34.8 receiving yards per game to RBs since the 2024 season — 11th-worst among FBS defenses.

UL Monroe Offensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana-Monroe WRs averaged 22.6 yards per reception (430 yards/19 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.2

Louisiana-Monroe Skill Players averaged 19.4 yards per reception (485 yards/25 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.0

Louisiana-Monroe WRs averaged 24.4 yards per reception (220 yards/9 catches) in close and late situations last season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.2

Louisiana-Monroe WRs have averaged 18.7 yards per reception (486 yards/26 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.2

Louisiana-Monroe Skill Players have averaged 16.9 yards per reception (541 yards/32 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– T-best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.9

UTEP Offensive Stats & Trends

UTEP Skill Players had no touchdowns on 24 receptions last week– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.9

UTEP have averaged just 5.5 yards per completion (71 yards/13 completions) on 3rd down this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.7

UTEP’s TEs has 13 receptions in 14 games (just 0.9 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among FBS TEs. Louisiana-Monroe’s defense has allowed just 16.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

UTEP’s TEs has 1 receptions in 3 games (just 0.3 per game) this season — T-4th-worst among FBS TEs. Louisiana-Monroe’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game this season — 34th-worst among FBS defenses.

UTEP’s RBs has rushed for 1,382 yards on 353 carries (just 3.9 YPC) since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among FBS RBs. Louisiana-Monroe’s defense have allowed 5.8 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.

UL Monroe Defensive Stats & Trends

Louisiana-Monroe has tackled opponents for a loss on just 5 of 63 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) this season– 4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

Louisiana-Monroe has allowed opponents to catch 41 of 53 passes (77% Reception Pct) this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 62%

Louisiana-Monroe has allowed a Completion Pct of 81% (29 completions/36 attempts) in the 1st half this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 64%

Louisiana-Monroe allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (15 completions/37 attempts) in close and late situations last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 58%

Louisiana-Monroe has allowed a Completion Pct of 81% (29 completions/36 attempts) in the 1st half this season– worst in FBS; Average: 62%

UTEP Defensive Stats & Trends

UTEP sacked opposing QBs on 10% of pass attempts (36/350) last season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

UTEP sacked opposing QBs on 10% of pass attempts (36/350) last season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 7%

UTEP allowed a Completion Pct of just 31% (5 completions/16 attempts) in the 1st half last week– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

UTEP has sacked opposing QBs on 13% of pass attempts (4/31) on 1st down this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4%

UTEP did not sack opposing QBs on any of 25 pass attempts last week– T-worst in FBS; Average: 7%


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