Tulsa vs Oklahoma St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 4

Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy talks to his players during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Kansas State Saturday, Oct. 29, 2022, in Manhattan, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
  • Oklahoma St is a -11.5 point favorite vs. Tulsa
  • Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN

Tulsa (1-2) visit Boone Pickens Stadium to take on Oklahoma State (1-1) on Sep. 19 in Stillwater, OK. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.

Oklahoma St is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-110).

The Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State Over/Under is 54.5 total points.

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Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Tulsa+11.5 -11054.5 -110310
Oklahoma State -11.5 -11054.5 -110-400

Tulsa vs Oklahoma State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Oklahoma State will win this game with 75.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Tulsa and Oklahoma St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Tulsa vs Oklahoma State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Tulsa will cover the spread with 59.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Tulsa has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Tulsa has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.75 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Tulsa has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Oklahoma State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.48 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Oklahoma State has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)

Tulsa Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Tulsa is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Tulsa is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -34.41% ROI
  • Tulsa is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Tulsa is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Oklahoma State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oklahoma St iss 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Oklahoma State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • Oklahoma State is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Oklahoma State is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Tulsa: Keys to the Game vs. Oklahoma State

Tulsa was winless (0-8) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .382

Tulsa is winless (0-10) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .393

Tulsa was 2-9 (.182) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-11th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .406

Tulsa was 1-8 (.111) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: .481

Oklahoma State: Keys to the Game vs. Tulsa

Oklahoma State was 2-6 (.250) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .581

Oklahoma State was 2-5 (.286) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .578

Oklahoma State was 1-9 (.100) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .451

Oklahoma State is 3-7 (.300) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .689

Matchup Notes for Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State’s WRs has 229 receptions in 14 games (16.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 4th-best among Big 12 WRs. Tulsa’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma State’s WRs has 229 receptions in 14 games (16.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 17th-best among FBS WRs. Tulsa’s defense has allowed 13.5 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma State’s WRs has 229 receptions in 14 games (16.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 17th-best among FBS WRs. Tulsa’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Tulsa’s WRs has averaged 24.8 targets per game since the 2024 season — T-21st-highest among FBS WRs. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 13.8 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Tulsa has 70 receptions in 3 games (23.3 per game) this season — T-26th-best among FBS skill players. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed just 13.5 receptions per game this season — T-4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Tulsa’s WRs has 50 receptions in 3 games (16.7 per game) this season — T-23rd-best among FBS WRs. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed just 13.5 receptions per game this season — T-4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Tulsa Offensive Stats & Trends

Tulsa’s WRs has averaged 24.8 targets per game since the 2024 season — T-21st-highest among FBS WRs. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed 13.8 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Tulsa has 70 receptions in 3 games (23.3 per game) this season — T-26th-best among FBS skill players. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed just 13.5 receptions per game this season — T-4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Tulsa RBs did not rush for 0a TD on 45 carries (inf Carries Per TD) in close and late situations last season– T-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.9

Tulsa’s WRs has 50 receptions in 3 games (16.7 per game) this season — T-23rd-best among FBS WRs. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed just 13.5 receptions per game this season — T-4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Tulsa’s RBs has 15 receptions in 3 games (5.0 per game) this season — T-20th-best among FBS RBs. Oklahoma State’s defense has allowed just 13.5 receptions per game this season — T-4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Oklahoma State Offensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma State’s WRs has 229 receptions in 14 games (16.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 4th-best among Big 12 WRs. Tulsa’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma State’s WRs has 229 receptions in 14 games (16.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 17th-best among FBS WRs. Tulsa’s defense has allowed 13.5 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma State’s WRs has 229 receptions in 14 games (16.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 17th-best among FBS WRs. Tulsa’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma State’s offense has thrown for 299 passing yards in 2 games (just 149.5 YPG) this season — 18th-worst among FBS offenses. Tulsa’s defense has allowed just 162.0 passing yards per game this season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.

Oklahoma State’s WRs has 229 receptions in 14 games (16.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 4th-best among Big 12 WRs. Tulsa’s defense has allowed 13.5 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Tulsa Defensive Stats & Trends

Tulsa allowed 38 TD passes last season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Tulsa allowed 38 TD passes last season– most in FBS

Tulsa allowed 316.0 Passing Yards per game (3,792/12) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 220.0

Tulsa did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

Tulsa has allowed 41 TD passes since the 2024 season– 2nd-most in FBS

Oklahoma State Defensive Stats & Trends

Oklahoma State has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 3 of 41 attempts (7%) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 2%

Oklahoma State has allowed 198.7 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs since the 2024 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 137.8

Oklahoma State forced 4 fumbles on 477 carries (119.2 Carries Per Fumble) last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 46.0

Oklahoma State has not forced a fumble (75 carries) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 45.9

Oklahoma State allowed 500.6 yards from scrimmage per game last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 373.8


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