Troy vs James Madison Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Sun Belt Championship

James Madison head coach Bob Chesney watches during the first half of the Boca Raton Bowl NCAA college football game against Western Kentucky, Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024, in Boca Raton, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
(AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
  • James Madison is a -23.5 point favorite vs. Troy
  • Troy vs. James Madison Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN

Troy (8-4) visit Bridgeforth Stadium to take on James Madison (11-1) on Dec. 5 in Harrisonburg, VA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST.

James Madison is a betting favorite in Week 15, with the spread sitting at -23.5 (-105).

The Troy vs. James Madison Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

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Troy vs. James Madison Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Troy+23.5 -11547.5 -1151200
James Madison -23.5 -10547.5 -105-3000

Troy vs James Madison Prediction:

The winning team model predicts James Madison will win this game with 76.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Troy and James Madison, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Troy vs James Madison Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Troy will cover the spread with 50.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Troy has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+10.65 Units / 155% ROI)
  • Troy has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+6.25 Units / 105% ROI)
  • Troy has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Troy have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Troy has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 6 away games (+3.50 Units / 53% ROI)
  • James Madison has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games (+11.00 Units / 8% ROI)
  • James Madison has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.70 Units / 32% ROI)
  • James Madison have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
  • James Madison has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.30 Units / 10% ROI)
  • James Madison has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 56% ROI)

Troy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Troy is 8-3 against the spread this college football season (+4.7 Units / 38.84% ROI).

  • Troy is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.25 Units / 30.09% ROI
  • Troy is 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
  • Troy is 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI

James Madison Against the Spread (ATS) Record

James Madison iss 8-4 against the spread this college football season (+3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • James Madison is 11-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +10 Units / 7.73% ROI
  • James Madison is 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -12.12% ROI
  • James Madison is 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 3.79% ROI

Troy: Keys to the Game vs. James Madison

James Madison is undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .398

James Madison is undefeated (9-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .617

James Madison was 7-1 (.875) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

James Madison is undefeated (9-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .568

James Madison: Keys to the Game vs. Troy

Troy was winless (0-4) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .382

Troy was winless (0-4) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .314

Troy was winless (0-6) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .379

Troy is undefeated (6-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .604

Matchup Notes for Troy vs. James Madison

Troy was winless (0-4) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .382

Troy was winless (0-4) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .314

Troy was winless (0-6) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .379

Troy is undefeated (6-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .604

James Madison is undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .398

James Madison is undefeated (9-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .617

James Madison was 7-1 (.875) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

James Madison is undefeated (9-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .568

Troy Offensive Stats & Trends

James Madison is undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .398

James Madison is undefeated (9-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .617

James Madison was 7-1 (.875) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

James Madison is undefeated (9-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .568

James Madison Offensive Stats & Trends

Troy was winless (0-4) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .382

Troy was winless (0-4) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .314

Troy was winless (0-6) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .379

Troy is undefeated (6-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .604

Troy Defensive Stats & Trends

James Madison is undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .398

James Madison is undefeated (9-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .617

James Madison was 7-1 (.875) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– T-3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

James Madison is undefeated (9-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .568

James Madison Defensive Stats & Trends

Troy was winless (0-4) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .382

Troy was winless (0-4) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .314

Troy was winless (0-6) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .379

Troy is undefeated (6-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .604


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