- Buffalo U is a -6.5 point favorite vs. Troy
- Troy vs. Buffalo Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
Troy (1-2) visit UB Stadium to take on Buffalo (2-1) on Sep. 20 in Buffalo, NY. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Buffalo U is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).
The Troy vs. Buffalo Over/Under is 42.5 total points.
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Troy vs. Buffalo Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Troy | +6.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | 200 |
| Buffalo | -6.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -250 |
Troy vs Buffalo Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Buffalo will win this game with 65.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Troy and Buffalo U, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Troy vs Buffalo Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Buffalo will cover the spread with 65.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Troy Best Bets Today
- Troy has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+9.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- Troy has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 away games (+4.15 Units / 83% ROI)
- Troy has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Troy have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- Troy has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Buffalo Best Bets Today
- Buffalo has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+9.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- Buffalo has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Buffalo have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- Buffalo have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Buffalo has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Troy Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Troy is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Troy is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Troy is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Troy is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
Buffalo Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Buffalo U iss 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Buffalo is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Buffalo is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Buffalo is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Troy: Keys to the Game vs. Buffalo
Troy was winless (0-4) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .382
Troy is 1-9 (.100) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2024 season– T-5th-worst in FBS; Average: .455
Troy is winless (0-8) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .383
Troy is 1-9 (.100) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2024 season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: .428
Buffalo: Keys to the Game vs. Troy
Buffalo was 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season– T-4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .583
Buffalo was 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .602
Buffalo was undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .632
Buffalo was 8-2 (.800) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .624
Matchup Notes for Troy vs. Buffalo
Buffalo’s TEs have just 8.6 receiving yards per game since the 2024 season — 4th-worst among FBS TEs. Troy’s defense has allowed just 25.4 receiving yards per game to TEs since the 2024 season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.
Troy’s offense has thrown for 2,995 passing yards in 15 games (just 199.7 YPG) since the 2024 season — 33rd-worst among FBS offenses. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 241.9 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Troy’s QBs has thrown for 2,966 passing yards in 15 games (just 197.7 YPG) since the 2024 season — 35th-worst among FBS teams. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 241.9 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Troy have just 197.7 receiving yards per game since the 2024 season — 33rd-worst among FBS skill players. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 241.9 receiving yards per game since the 2024 season — 27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Troy Offensive Stats & Trends
Troy’s offense has thrown for 2,995 passing yards in 15 games (just 199.7 YPG) since the 2024 season — 33rd-worst among FBS offenses. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 241.9 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Troy RBs have averaged 10.2 Yards per Carry (112 yards/11 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Troy threw 0 TDs on 32 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) last week– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 18.6
Troy’s QBs has thrown for 2,966 passing yards in 15 games (just 197.7 YPG) since the 2024 season — 35th-worst among FBS teams. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 241.9 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Troy averaged just 6.0 yards per completion (72 yards/12 completions) last week– 4th-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 12.1
Buffalo Offensive Stats & Trends
Buffalo have caught just 30 of 70 passes (43% Reception Pct) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 60%
Buffalo WRs had 6 receptions for 20 or more yards last week– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
Buffalo TEs have averaged just 0.3 receptions per game (1/3) this season– T-4th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 3.3
Buffalo have thrown for first downs on 10% of their pass attempts in close and late situations since the 2024 season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 31%
Buffalo RBs averaged 17.6 yards per reception (88 yards/5 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– T-3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 8.1
Troy Defensive Stats & Trends
Troy allowed 2.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (197 yards / 88 touches) in the Red Zone last season– T-best in FBS; Average: 3.7
Troy allowed 2.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (197 yards / 88 touches) in the Red Zone last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8
Troy has allowed a Completion Pct of 72% (56 completions/78 attempts) this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%
Troy allowed first downs on 7% of rush attempts in the Red Zone last season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18%
Troy sacked opponents 7 times in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Buffalo Defensive Stats & Trends
Buffalo tackled opponents for a loss on 84 of 467 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) last season– 34th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
Buffalo has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 5 of 108 carries (5%) this season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%
Buffalo has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 1 of 25 carries (4%) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19%
Buffalo allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 1 of 20 carries (5%) on 3rd and long last season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19%
Buffalo has one interception and 4 TD passes allowed this season– T-27th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.6
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