- Toledo is a -14.5 point favorite vs. W Michigan
- Toledo vs. Western Michigan Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
Toledo (2-1) visit Waldo Stadium to take on Western Michigan (0-3) on Sep. 20 in Kalamazoo, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Toledo is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-110).
The Toledo vs. Western Michigan Over/Under is 50.5 total points.
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Toledo vs. Western Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Toledo | -14.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -700 |
| Western Michigan | +14.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | 500 |
Toledo vs Western Michigan Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 78.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Toledo and W Michigan, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Toledo vs Western Michigan Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Toledo will cover the spread with 64.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Toledo Best Bets Today
- Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.45 Units / 49% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- Toledo have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Toledo have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)
Western Michigan Best Bets Today
- Western Michigan has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- Western Michigan have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)
- Western Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+3.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- Western Michigan have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Western Michigan have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Toledo is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Toledo is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Toledo is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Toledo is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Western Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record
W Michigan iss 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Western Michigan is 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -100% ROI
- Western Michigan is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Western Michigan is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Western Michigan
Toledo is 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season– T-14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .586
Toledo is 9-4 (.692) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2024 season– 14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .536
Toledo was 7-2 (.778) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .668
Toledo was 7-3 (.700) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .575
Western Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo
Western Michigan is 1-5 (.167) when not forcing and recovering a fumble since the 2024 season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: .485
Western Michigan was 2-6 (.250) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .420
Western Michigan is 2-9 (.182) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2024 season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: .428
Western Michigan is 5-8 (.385) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-36th-worst in FBS; Average: .558
Matchup Notes for Toledo vs. Western Michigan
Western Michigan has gained 366 yards on 36 receptions (just 10.2 YPR) this season — T-27th-worst among FBS skill players. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Michigan’s QBs has thrown for 366 passing yards in 3 games (just 122.0 YPG) this season — 11th-worst among FBS teams. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 126.3 passing yards per game this season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Michigan has gained 366 yards on 36 receptions (just 10.2 YPR) this season — T-27th-worst among FBS skill players. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-best among NonP5 defenses.
Toledo’s RBs has rushed for 1,682 yards on 406 carries (just 4.1 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-6th-worst among FBS RBs. Western Michigan’s defense have allowed 5.8 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.
Toledo’s WRs has 236 receptions in 16 games (14.8 per game) since the 2024 season — T-27th-best among FBS WRs. Western Michigan’s defense has allowed just 16.4 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo’s WRs has 236 receptions in 16 games (14.8 per game) since the 2024 season — T-27th-best among FBS WRs. Western Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.4 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends
Toledo’s RBs has rushed for 1,682 yards on 406 carries (just 4.1 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-6th-worst among FBS RBs. Western Michigan’s defense have allowed 5.8 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.
Toledo had 7 receptions in the Red Zone last week– T-2nd-most among FBS Offenses
Toledo’s WRs has 236 receptions in 16 games (14.8 per game) since the 2024 season — T-27th-best among FBS WRs. Western Michigan’s defense has allowed just 16.4 receptions per game since the 2024 season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo RBs averaged just 3.7 Yards per Carry (1,147 yards/313 carries) last season– T-3rd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Toledo Skill Players had 7 receptions in the Red Zone last week– T-most among FBS Teams
Western Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends
Western Michigan has gained 366 yards on 36 receptions (just 10.2 YPR) this season — T-27th-worst among FBS skill players. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Michigan WRs have no touchdowns on 19 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.8
Western Michigan’s QBs has thrown for 366 passing yards in 3 games (just 122.0 YPG) this season — 11th-worst among FBS teams. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 126.3 passing yards per game this season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Michigan have thrown one TD on 71 pass attempts this season– 8th-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 17.7
Western Michigan RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 77 carries (inf Carries Per TD) this season– T-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 19.8
Toledo Defensive Stats & Trends
Toledo allowed just 2.2 yards per completion (20 yards/9 completions) last week– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.6
Toledo allowed 1.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (56 yards / 41 touches) last week– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 6.9
Toledo allowed 56.0 yards from scrimmage per game last week– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 394.9
Toledo allowed first downs on 6% of pass attempts last week– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 33%
Toledo allowed just 1.2 Yards per Attempt (20 yards/16 attempts) last week– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7.2
Western Michigan Defensive Stats & Trends
Western Michigan has no interceptions and 5 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: 6.6
Western Michigan has allowed 12 TDs in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Western Michigan tackled opponents for a loss on just 5 of 66 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 9th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.
Western Michigan tackled opponents for a loss on just 65 of 500 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) last season– 29th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
Western Michigan has sacked opponents 4 times on 1st down this season– T-2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
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