Toledo vs Miami (OH) Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 12, 2025, 4:15 PM

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Miami (Ohio) head football coach Chuck Martin directs the team before an NCAA college football game against Northwestern, Saturday, Sept. 24, 2022, in Evanston, Ill. (AP Photo/Matt Marton)

(AP Photo/Matt Marton)

Toledo is a -4.5 point favorite vs. Miami (OH)
Toledo vs. Miami Ohio Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN2

Toledo (5-4) visit Fred C. Yager Stadium to take on Miami Ohio (5-4) on Nov. 12 in Oxford, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST.

Toledo is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Toledo vs. Miami Ohio Over/Under is 45.5 total points.

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Toledo vs. Miami Ohio Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Toledo	-4.5 -110	45.5 -115	-210
Miami Ohio	+4.5 -110	45.5 -105	175

Toledo vs Miami Ohio Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 59.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Toledo and Miami (OH), key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Toledo vs Miami Ohio Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Miami (OH) will cover the spread with 56.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Toledo Best Bets Today

Toledo has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+4.55 Units / 8% ROI)
Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.10 Units / 27% ROI)
Toledo has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.65 Units / 43% ROI)
Toledo have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)

Miami Ohio Best Bets Today

Miami (OH) have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.40 Units / 35% ROI)
Miami (OH) has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.65 Units / 33% ROI)
Miami (OH) have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.62 Units / 18% ROI)
Miami (OH) has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.45 Units / 30% ROI)
Miami (OH) has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.85 Units / 9% ROI)

Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Toledo is 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI).

Toledo is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.95 Units / -11.48% ROI
Toledo is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
Toledo is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Miami Ohio Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Miami (OH) iss against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

Miami Ohio is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
Miami Ohio is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
Miami Ohio is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Miami Ohio

Toledo’s RBs has averaged 9.3 yards after the catch this season — T-33rd-best among FBS RBs. Miami (OH)’s defense has allowed just 3.5 RAC to RBs this season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo TEs caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Toledo Skill Players have no touchdowns on 15 receptions in close and late situations this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.7

Toledo’s WRs has 137 receptions in 9 games (15.2 per game) this season — 29th-best among FBS WRs. Miami (OH)’s defense has allowed 14.5 receptions per game to WRs this season — 17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Toledo RBs picked up first downs on 5 receptions last week– most among FBS Teams

Miami Ohio: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo

Miami (OH)’s RBs has averaged 9.5 yards after the catch this season — T-30th-best among FBS RBs. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC this season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

Miami (OH) Skill Players have averaged 20.3 yards per reception (264 yards/13 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 10.9

Miami (OH)’s WRs has just 0.6 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-17th-worst among FBS WRs. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 0.9 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.

Miami (OH) have gained 40+ yards on 8 of their 110 receptions (7%) this season– 7th-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%

Miami (OH) RBs picked up first downs on 5 receptions in close and late situations last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Matchup Notes for Toledo vs. Miami Ohio