Toledo vs Louisville Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Boca Raton Bowl

• Louisville is a -6.5 point favorite vs. Toledo
• Toledo vs. Louisville Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
• TV Channel: ESPN

Toledo (8-4) visit Flagler Credit Union Stadium to take on Louisville (8-4) on Dec. 23 in Boca Raton, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00pm EST.

Louisville is a betting favorite in the Boca Raton Bowl, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).

The Toledo vs. Louisville Over/Under is 44.5 total points.

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Toledo vs. Louisville Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

Toledo vs Louisville Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Louisville will win this game with 72.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Toledo and Louisville, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Toledo vs Louisville Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Louisville will cover the spread with 50.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Toledo Best Bets Today

• Toledo has hit the Team Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
• Toledo have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
• Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• Toledo has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+3.95 Units / 4% ROI)
• Toledo has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)

Louisville Best Bets Today

• Louisville has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 56% ROI)
• Louisville has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+3.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.65 Units / 33% ROI)
• Louisville has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.45 Units / 29% ROI)
• Louisville has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)

Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Toledo is 8-4 against the spread this college football season (+3.6 Units / 27.27% ROI).

• Toledo is 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -3.53% ROI
• Toledo is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
• Toledo is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI

Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Louisville iss 4-8 against the spread this college football season (-4.75 Units / -36.12% ROI).

• Louisville is 8-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.2 Units / -3.41% ROI
• Louisville is 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
• Louisville is 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI

Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Louisville

Toledo’s RBs has averaged 10.2 yards after the catch this season — T-19th-best among FBS RBs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC this season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.

Toledo’s RBs has averaged 10.2 yards after the catch this season — T-19th-best among FBS RBs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC this season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo’s WRs has 1.6 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-18th-best among FBS WRs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo’s WRs has averaged just 11.4 yards after the catch this season — T-22nd-worst among FBS WRs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC this season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo has 2.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-16th-best among FBS skill players. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

Louisville: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo

Louisville was 8-2 (.800) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .604

Louisville is 7-2 (.778) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .587

Louisville is 7-1 (.875) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .661

Louisville is 5-1 (.833) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– T-8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .486

Matchup Notes for Toledo vs. Louisville

Louisville was 8-2 (.800) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .604

Louisville is 7-2 (.778) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .587

Louisville is 7-1 (.875) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .661

Louisville is 5-1 (.833) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– T-8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .486

Toledo’s RBs has averaged 10.2 yards after the catch this season — T-19th-best among FBS RBs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC this season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.

Toledo’s RBs has averaged 10.2 yards after the catch this season — T-19th-best among FBS RBs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC this season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo’s WRs has 1.6 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-18th-best among FBS WRs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo’s WRs has averaged just 11.4 yards after the catch this season — T-22nd-worst among FBS WRs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC this season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo has 2.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-16th-best among FBS skill players. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends

Toledo’s RBs has averaged 10.2 yards after the catch this season — T-19th-best among FBS RBs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC this season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.

Toledo’s RBs has averaged 10.2 yards after the catch this season — T-19th-best among FBS RBs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC this season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo’s WRs has 1.6 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-18th-best among FBS WRs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo’s WRs has averaged just 11.4 yards after the catch this season — T-22nd-worst among FBS WRs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC this season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo has 2.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-16th-best among FBS skill players. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends

Louisville was 8-2 (.800) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .604

Louisville is 7-2 (.778) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .587

Louisville is 7-1 (.875) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .661

Louisville is 5-1 (.833) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– T-8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .486

Toledo Defensive Stats & Trends

Toledo’s RBs has averaged 10.2 yards after the catch this season — T-19th-best among FBS RBs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC this season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.

Toledo’s RBs has averaged 10.2 yards after the catch this season — T-19th-best among FBS RBs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC this season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo’s WRs has 1.6 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-18th-best among FBS WRs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo’s WRs has averaged just 11.4 yards after the catch this season — T-22nd-worst among FBS WRs. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC this season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Toledo has 2.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-16th-best among FBS skill players. Louisville’s defense has allowed just 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

Louisville Defensive Stats & Trends

Louisville was 8-2 (.800) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .604

Louisville is 7-2 (.778) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .587

Louisville is 7-1 (.875) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .661

Louisville is 5-1 (.833) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– T-8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .486

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