- Kentucky is a -8.5 point favorite vs. Toledo
- Toledo vs. Kentucky Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
- TV Channel: SECN
The Toledo (0-0) visit Kroger Field to take on the Kentucky (0-0) on Aug. 30 in Lexington, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:45pm EDT.
Kentucky is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).
The Toledo vs. Kentucky Over/Under is 48.5 total points.
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Toledo vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Toledo | +8.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +260 |
| Kentucky | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -325 |
Toledo vs Kentucky Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Kentucky will win this game with 71.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Toledo and Kentucky, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Toledo vs Kentucky Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Toledo will cover the spread with 78.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Toledo Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.80 Units / 68% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Toledo have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.30 Units / 18% ROI)
Kentucky Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.75 Units / 65% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the 1H Moneyline in 1 of their last 3 games (+2.50 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 games (+1.65 Units / 38% ROI)
Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Kentucky
Toledo is 13-3 (.812) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .476
Toledo was 7-3 (.700) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times in the 2024 season– T-39th-best in FBS; Average: .574
Toledo is 15-2 (.882) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– 28th-best in FBS; Average: .748
Toledo is 16-5 (.762) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– 10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .584
Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo
Kentucky was 1-7 (.125) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush in the 2024 season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .464
Kentucky is 2-12 (.143) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .458
Kentucky is 3-12 (.200) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .482
Kentucky is 1-9 (.100) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: .380
Matchup Notes for Toledo vs. Kentucky
Kentucky averaged 13.3 yards after the catch last season — T-4th-best among SEC skill players. Toledo’s defense allowed just 11.0 RAC last season — T-33rd-best among FBS defenses.
Kentucky’s TEs had 25 receptions in 11 games (just 2.3 per game) last season — worst among SEC TEs. Toledo’s defense allowed just 2.5 receptions per game to TEs last season — T-19th-best among FBS defenses.
Kentucky’s WRs averaged 15.4 yards after the catch last season — T-4th-best among Power 5 WRs. Toledo’s defense allowed just 11.0 RAC last season — T-33rd-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo’s WRs had 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-23rd-best among FBS WRs. Kentucky’s defense allowed just 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-4th-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo’s WRs had 193.3 receiving yards per game last season — 32nd-best among FBS WRs. Kentucky’s defense allowed just 183.7 receiving yards per game last season — 21st-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo’s WRs had 201 receptions in 13 games (15.5 per game) last season — T-21st-best among FBS WRs. Kentucky’s defense allowed just 14.8 receptions per game last season — 2nd-best among P5 defenses.
Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends
Toledo’s WRs had 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-23rd-best among FBS WRs. Kentucky’s defense allowed just 0.8 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-4th-best among FBS defenses.
Toledo TEs have caught 4 touchdown passes in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Toledo RBs have fumbled 5 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Toledo WRs have just one touchdown on 52 receptions in close and late situations since the 2023 season– 7th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.7
Toledo RBs had no touchdowns on 42 receptions in the 2024 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 19.8
Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends
Kentucky TEs have averaged 17.9 yards per reception (484 yards/27 catches) on 1st down since the 2023 season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 12.3
Kentucky TEs have averaged 17.9 yards per reception (484 yards/27 catches) on 1st down since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.8
Kentucky WRs caught just 114 of 217 passes(53% Reception Pct) in the 2024 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 61%
Kentucky TEs have caught just 4 of 11 passes (36% Reception Pct) in close and late situations since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 68%
Kentucky QBs had 11 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go in the 2024 season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
Toledo Defensive Stats & Trends
Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (464 completions/835 attempts) since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
Toledo opponents has averaged 29.8 Passing Attempts per TD (835 Pass Attempts/28 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.0
Toledo opponents averaged 34.2 Passing Attempts per TD (411 Pass Attempts/12 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18.8
Toledo allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 31 of 424 attempts (7%) in the 2024 season– T-3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%
Toledo tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 36 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2024 season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.
Kentucky Defensive Stats & Trends
Kentucky has sacked opponents 11 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most in the SEC
Kentucky has tackled opponents for a loss on 34 of 163 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 15%.
Kentucky’s opponents attempted just 23.2 passes per game in the 2024 season– lowest in the SEC; Average: 29.7
Kentucky allowed passes of 20+ yards on 37 of 279 attempts (13%) in the 2024 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 10%
Kentucky allowed 2.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (248 yards / 96 touches) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: 3.7
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