- UTSA is a -4.5 point favorite vs. Texas St
- Texas State vs. UTSA Total (Over/Under): 66.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
Texas State (1-0) visit Alamodome to take on UTSA (0-1) on Sep. 6 in San Antonio, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
UTSA is a betting favorite in Week 2, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).
The Texas State vs. UTSA Over/Under is 66.5 total points.
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Texas State vs. UTSA Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Texas State | +4.5 -110 | 66.5 -110 | +155 |
| UTSA | -4.5 -110 | 66.5 -110 | -190 |
Texas State vs UTSA Prediction:
The winning team model predicts UTSA will win this game with 62.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas St and UTSA, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Texas State vs UTSA Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas State will cover the spread with 62.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Texas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Texas State have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- Texas State have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
UTSA Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- UTSA has hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+6.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- UTSA have covered the Spread in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- UTSA has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- UTSA have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- UTSA has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas St is 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Texas State is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 19.23% ROI
- Texas State is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Texas State is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
UTSA Against the Spread (ATS) Record
UTSA iss 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- UTSA is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- UTSA is 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- UTSA is 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. UTSA
Texas State was 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush in the 2024 season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .633
Texas State was 5-2 (.714) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2024 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .476
Texas State was 5-1 (.833) when intercepting at least 1 pass in the 2024 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .670
Texas State was 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush in the 2024 season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .616
UTSA: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State
UTSA was 4-1 (.800) when not losing a fumble in the 2024 season– T-9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .535
UTSA was 4-1 (.800) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team in the 2023 season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .533
UTSA was 5-2 (.714) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays in the 2023 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .596
UTSA was undefeated (6-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass in the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .613
Matchup Notes for Texas State vs. UTSA
UTSA’s RBs has rushed for 215 yards on 29 carries (7.4 YPC) this season — T-14th-best among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense have allowed 5.9 YPC to RBs this season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.8% of 27 attempts this season — T-29th-best among FBS offenses. UTSA’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 22.2% of attempts this season — worst among NonP5 defenses.
Texas State’s RBs has rushed for 332 yards on 27 carries (12.3 YPC) this season — best among FBS RBs. UTSA’s defense have allowed 4.7 YPC this season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s RBs has rushed for 332 yards on 27 carries (12.3 YPC) this season — best among FBS RBs. UTSA’s defense have allowed 5.5 YPC to RBs this season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Texas State RBs have averaged 12.3 Yards per Carry (332 yards/27 carries) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Texas State RBs have averaged 12.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (383 yards / 30 touches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.4
Texas State WRs have 6 receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Texas State RBs have averaged 13.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (124 yards / 9 touches) on 2nd down this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Texas State RBs have averaged 214.0 rushing yards per game (214/1) in the 1st half this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 65.0
UTSA Offensive Stats & Trends
UTSA TEs were targeted 53 times on 3rd down in the 2024 season– most among FBS Teams
UTSA TEs have been targeted 8.0 times per game (8/1) in the 1st half this season– T-3rd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 3.1
UTSA TEs averaged 6.9 receptions per game (90/13) in the 2024 season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.3
UTSA TEs had 366 receiving yards on 3rd down in the 2024 season– most among FBS Teams
UTSA TEs have been targeted 4 times on 3rd down this season– T-5th-most among FBS Teams
Texas State Defensive Stats & Trends
Texas State opponents averaged 32.7 Passing Attempts per TD (360 Pass Attempts/11 Passing TDs) in the 2024 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.3
Texas State tackled opponents for a loss on 92 of 454 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) in the 2024 season– 12th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
Texas State sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (33/360) in the 2024 season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: 7%
Texas State tackled opponents for a loss on 3 of 17 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2024 season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.
Texas State allowed a Completion Pct of just 45% (17 completions/38 attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: 54%
UTSA Defensive Stats & Trends
UTSA defense has allowed 8 completions for 20 or more yards this season– T-2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
UTSA allowed 7 TD passes in close and late situations in the 2024 season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
UTSA has allowed 8 receptions for 20+ yards this season– T-2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
UTSA tackled opponents for a loss on 106 of 461 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) in the 2024 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.
UTSA has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 32 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 10%.
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