Texas St vs Southern Miss Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 14, 2025, 11:36 AM

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Balls lie on the field before an NCAA college football game between Mississippi and Vanderbilt on Thursday, Aug. 29, 2013, in Nashville, Tenn.

(AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Southern Miss is a -4.5 point favorite vs. Texas St
Texas State vs. Southern Mississippi Total (Over/Under): 65.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

Texas State (3-6) visit M. M. Roberts Stadium to take on Southern Mississippi (7-2) on Nov. 15 in Hattiesburg, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

Southern Miss is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Texas State vs. Southern Mississippi Over/Under is 65.5 total points.

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Texas State vs. Southern Mississippi Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Texas State	+4.5 -110	65.5 -110	150
Southern Mississippi	-4.5 -110	65.5 -110	-185

Texas State vs Southern Mississippi Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Southern Mississippi will win this game with 62.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas St and Southern Miss, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

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Texas State Best Bets Today

Texas State has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 25% ROI)
Texas State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 away games (+2.15 Units / 29% ROI)
Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Texas State has hit the Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 14% ROI)

Southern Mississippi Best Bets Today

Southern Mississippi has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 39% ROI)
Southern Miss has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+4.35 Units / 44% ROI)
Southern Miss have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
Southern Miss has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.75 Units / 53% ROI)
Southern Mississippi have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.55 Units / 26% ROI)

Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas St is 2-6 against the spread this college football season (-4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI).

Texas State is 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.65 Units / -54.62% ROI
Texas State is 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI
Texas State is 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI

Southern Mississippi Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Southern Miss iss against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

Southern Mississippi is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
Southern Mississippi is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
Southern Mississippi is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. Southern Mississippi

Southern Miss was winless (0-4) when allowing 200 or more passing yards last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .462

Southern Miss was winless (0-8) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .424

Southern Miss was winless (0-10) when throwing at least 1 interception last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .382

Southern Miss was winless (0-8) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Southern Mississippi: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State

Southern Miss WRs have averaged 26.5 yards per reception (291 yards/11 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.0

Southern Miss have averaged 17.0 yards per completion (562 yards/33 completions) on 3rd down this season– 3rd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8

Southern Miss were sacked on 23% of pass attempts (14/61) in the 4th quarter last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Offenses; Average: 7%

Southern Miss Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 23.6 receptions (165 Rec/7 TDs) last season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.7

Southern Miss have not been sacked (59 pass attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 13.8

Matchup Notes for Texas State vs. Southern Mississippi