- Texas St is a -13.5 point favorite vs. Arkansas St
- Texas State vs. Arkansas State Total (Over/Under): 64.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPNU
Texas State (3-1) visit Centennial Bank Stadium to take on Arkansas State (1-4) on Oct. 4 in Jonesboro, AR. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EDT.
Texas St is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-110).
The Texas State vs. Arkansas State Over/Under is 64.5 total points.
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Texas State vs. Arkansas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Texas State | -13.5 -110 | 64.5 -115 | -500 |
| Arkansas State | +13.5 -110 | 64.5 -105 | 375 |
Texas State vs Arkansas State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Texas State will win this game with 76.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas St and Arkansas St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Texas State vs Arkansas State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas State will cover the spread with 64.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Texas State Best Bets Today
- Texas State have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- Texas State have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.70 Units / 11% ROI)
Arkansas State Best Bets Today
- Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- Arkansas State have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 56% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.10 Units / 18% ROI)
Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas St is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Texas State is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 22.92% ROI
- Texas State is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Texas State is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas St iss 2-3 against the spread this college football season (-1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI).
- Arkansas State is 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.85 Units / -36.15% ROI
- Arkansas State is 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Arkansas State is 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State
Texas State has averaged just 11.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-24th-worst among FBS skill players. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 13.2 RAC since the 2024 season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s RBs has rushed for 2,954 yards on 527 carries (5.6 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS RBs. Arkansas State’s defense have allowed 5.6 YPC since the 2024 season — T-2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s RBs has rushed for 2,954 yards on 527 carries (5.6 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS RBs. Arkansas State’s defense have allowed 5.9 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s WRs has averaged just 11.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-8th-worst among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 13.2 RAC since the 2024 season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State QBs rushed for 6 TDs in the 1st quarter last season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State
Texas State was 5-2 (.714) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470
Texas State is 8-6 (.571) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2024 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .455
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .643
Texas State is 11-3 (.786) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season– 8th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .587
Matchup Notes for Texas State vs. Arkansas State
Texas State was 5-2 (.714) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470
Texas State is 8-6 (.571) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2024 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .455
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .643
Texas State is 11-3 (.786) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season– 8th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .587
Texas State has averaged just 11.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-24th-worst among FBS skill players. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 13.2 RAC since the 2024 season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s RBs has rushed for 2,954 yards on 527 carries (5.6 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS RBs. Arkansas State’s defense have allowed 5.6 YPC since the 2024 season — T-2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s RBs has rushed for 2,954 yards on 527 carries (5.6 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS RBs. Arkansas State’s defense have allowed 5.9 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s WRs has averaged just 11.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-8th-worst among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 13.2 RAC since the 2024 season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State QBs rushed for 6 TDs in the 1st quarter last season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Texas State has averaged just 11.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-24th-worst among FBS skill players. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 13.2 RAC since the 2024 season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s RBs has rushed for 2,954 yards on 527 carries (5.6 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS RBs. Arkansas State’s defense have allowed 5.6 YPC since the 2024 season — T-2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s RBs has rushed for 2,954 yards on 527 carries (5.6 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS RBs. Arkansas State’s defense have allowed 5.9 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s WRs has averaged just 11.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-8th-worst among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 13.2 RAC since the 2024 season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State QBs rushed for 6 TDs in the 1st quarter last season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Texas State was 5-2 (.714) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470
Texas State is 8-6 (.571) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2024 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .455
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .643
Texas State is 11-3 (.786) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season– 8th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .587
Texas State Defensive Stats & Trends
Texas State has averaged just 11.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-24th-worst among FBS skill players. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 13.2 RAC since the 2024 season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s RBs has rushed for 2,954 yards on 527 carries (5.6 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS RBs. Arkansas State’s defense have allowed 5.6 YPC since the 2024 season — T-2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s RBs has rushed for 2,954 yards on 527 carries (5.6 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-29th-best among FBS RBs. Arkansas State’s defense have allowed 5.9 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-8th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s WRs has averaged just 11.5 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-8th-worst among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 13.2 RAC since the 2024 season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas State QBs rushed for 6 TDs in the 1st quarter last season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
Arkansas State Defensive Stats & Trends
Texas State was 5-2 (.714) when they have committed less than 60 yards in penalties last season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .470
Texas State is 8-6 (.571) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2024 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .455
Texas State was 6-1 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .643
Texas State is 11-3 (.786) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season– 8th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .587
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