- Tennessee is a -7.5 point favorite vs. Mississippi St
- Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Total (Over/Under): 64.5 points
- TV Channel: SECN
Tennessee (3-1) visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on Mississippi State (4-0) on Sep. 27 in Starkville, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15pm EDT.
Tennessee is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).
The Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Over/Under is 64.5 total points.
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Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Tennessee | -7.5 -110 | 64.5 -115 | -300 |
| Mississippi State | +7.5 -110 | 64.5 -105 | 240 |
Tennessee vs Mississippi State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Tennessee will win this game with 83.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Tennessee and Mississippi St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Tennessee vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Tennessee will cover the spread with 83.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Tennessee Best Bets Today
- Tennessee has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Tennessee has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.35 Units / 2% ROI)
- Tennessee have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.25 Units / 2% ROI)
- Tennessee have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.20 Units / 1% ROI)
Mississippi State Best Bets Today
- Mississippi State have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- Mississippi State have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.85 Units / 2% ROI)
Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Tennessee is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 42.7% ROI).
- Tennessee is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Tennessee is 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Tennessee is 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.4 Units / -100% ROI
Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi St iss 4-0 against the spread this college football season (+4 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Mississippi State is 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.85 Units / 6.17% ROI
- Mississippi State is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
- Mississippi State is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State
Tennessee has gained 1,351 yards on 96 receptions (14.1 YPR) this season — T-4th-best among SEC skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 8.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.
Tennessee’s offense has thrown for 1,351 passing yards in 4 games (337.8 YPG) this season — 8th-best among FBS offenses. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 127.5 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Tennessee has gained 1,351 yards on 96 receptions (14.1 YPR) this season — T-17th-best among FBS skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 8.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.
Tennessee WRs have been targeted 39 times in the 1st quarter this season– most among Power Conference Teams
Tennessee’s TEs has gained 135 yards on 15 receptions (just 9.0 YPR) this season — T-4th-worst among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 8.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.
Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Tennessee
Mississippi State have completed passes for 40+ yards on 9 of their 108 total passing attempts (8%) this season– 3rd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2%
Mississippi State’s TEs has 8 receptions in 4 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among SEC TEs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed 26.0 receptions per game this season — worst among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State’s TEs has 8 receptions in 4 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among SEC TEs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed 26.0 receptions per game this season — 2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State has averaged 13.4 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-12th-best among FBS skill players. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2024 season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 28.6 yards per reception (229 yards/8 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.8
Matchup Notes for Tennessee vs. Mississippi State
Mississippi State have completed passes for 40+ yards on 9 of their 108 total passing attempts (8%) this season– 3rd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2%
Mississippi State’s TEs has 8 receptions in 4 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among SEC TEs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed 26.0 receptions per game this season — worst among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State’s TEs has 8 receptions in 4 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among SEC TEs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed 26.0 receptions per game this season — 2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State has averaged 13.4 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-12th-best among FBS skill players. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2024 season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 28.6 yards per reception (229 yards/8 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.8
Tennessee has gained 1,351 yards on 96 receptions (14.1 YPR) this season — T-4th-best among SEC skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 8.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.
Tennessee’s offense has thrown for 1,351 passing yards in 4 games (337.8 YPG) this season — 8th-best among FBS offenses. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 127.5 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Tennessee has gained 1,351 yards on 96 receptions (14.1 YPR) this season — T-17th-best among FBS skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 8.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.
Tennessee WRs have been targeted 39 times in the 1st quarter this season– most among Power Conference Teams
Tennessee’s TEs has gained 135 yards on 15 receptions (just 9.0 YPR) this season — T-4th-worst among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 8.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.
Tennessee Offensive Stats & Trends
Tennessee has gained 1,351 yards on 96 receptions (14.1 YPR) this season — T-4th-best among SEC skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 8.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.
Tennessee’s offense has thrown for 1,351 passing yards in 4 games (337.8 YPG) this season — 8th-best among FBS offenses. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 127.5 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Tennessee has gained 1,351 yards on 96 receptions (14.1 YPR) this season — T-17th-best among FBS skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 8.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.
Tennessee WRs have been targeted 39 times in the 1st quarter this season– most among Power Conference Teams
Tennessee’s TEs has gained 135 yards on 15 receptions (just 9.0 YPR) this season — T-4th-worst among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 8.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.
Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State have completed passes for 40+ yards on 9 of their 108 total passing attempts (8%) this season– 3rd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2%
Mississippi State’s TEs has 8 receptions in 4 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among SEC TEs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed 26.0 receptions per game this season — worst among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State’s TEs has 8 receptions in 4 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among SEC TEs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed 26.0 receptions per game this season — 2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State has averaged 13.4 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-12th-best among FBS skill players. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2024 season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 28.6 yards per reception (229 yards/8 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.8
Tennessee Defensive Stats & Trends
Tennessee has gained 1,351 yards on 96 receptions (14.1 YPR) this season — T-4th-best among SEC skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 8.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.
Tennessee’s offense has thrown for 1,351 passing yards in 4 games (337.8 YPG) this season — 8th-best among FBS offenses. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 127.5 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Tennessee has gained 1,351 yards on 96 receptions (14.1 YPR) this season — T-17th-best among FBS skill players. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 8.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among FBS defenses.
Tennessee WRs have been targeted 39 times in the 1st quarter this season– most among Power Conference Teams
Tennessee’s TEs has gained 135 yards on 15 receptions (just 9.0 YPR) this season — T-4th-worst among SEC TEs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 8.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.
Mississippi State Defensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State have completed passes for 40+ yards on 9 of their 108 total passing attempts (8%) this season– 3rd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 2%
Mississippi State’s TEs has 8 receptions in 4 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among SEC TEs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed 26.0 receptions per game this season — worst among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State’s TEs has 8 receptions in 4 games (just 2.0 per game) this season — 2nd-worst among SEC TEs. Tennessee’s defense has allowed 26.0 receptions per game this season — 2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State has averaged 13.4 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-12th-best among FBS skill players. Tennessee’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2024 season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State Skill Players have averaged 28.6 yards per reception (229 yards/8 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.8
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