Tennessee vs Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 19, 2025, 12:39 PM

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Florida head coach Billy Napier watches play during the first half of the NCAA college football team's annual Orange and Blue spring game, Thursday, April 13, 2023, in Gainesville, Fla.

(AP Photo/John Raoux)

Tennessee is a -4.5 point favorite vs. Florida
Tennessee vs. Florida Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

Tennessee (7-3) visit Ben Hill Griffin Stadium to take on Florida (3-7) on Nov. 22 in Gainesville, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST.

Tennessee is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-105).

The Tennessee vs. Florida Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

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Tennessee vs. Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Tennessee	-4.5 -105	57.5 -118	-200
Florida	+4.5 -115	57.5 -102	165

Tennessee vs Florida Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Tennessee will win this game with 64.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Tennessee and Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

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Tennessee Best Bets Today

Tennessee has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
Tennessee has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 43% ROI)
Tennessee has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 0% ROI)
Tennessee has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 48% ROI)
Tennessee has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.75 Units / 47% ROI)

Florida Best Bets Today

Florida has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.50 Units / 3% ROI)
Florida has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
Florida has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.80 Units / 6% ROI)
Florida has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 48% ROI)
Florida have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.15 Units / 27% ROI)

Tennessee Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Tennessee is 4-6 against the spread this college football season (-2.6 Units / -23.53% ROI).

Tennessee is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 2.72% ROI
Tennessee is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
Tennessee is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida iss 4-6 against the spread this college football season (-2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI).

Florida is 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.7 Units / -63.82% ROI
Florida is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
Florida is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI

Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. Florida

Tennessee allowed no passing TDs (53 pass attempts) last week– T-best in the SEC; Average: 25.2

Tennessee did not allow any touchdowns on 35 completions last week– T-best in the SEC; Average: 15.9

Tennessee opponents averaged 6.8 Passing Attempts per TD (34 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Tennessee has forced 17 fumbles this season– most in the SEC

Tennessee has forced 17 fumbles this season– 2nd-most in FBS

Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Tennessee

Florida allowed 6.0 touchdowns per interception (18 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) in the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 1.7

Florida allowed 6.0 touchdowns per interception (18 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) in the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

Florida allowed passes of 40+ yards on 20 of 325 attempts (6%) in the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%

Florida allowed passes of 40+ yards on 20 of 325 attempts (6%) in the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 2%

Florida opponents averaged 7.8 Passing Attempts per TD (31 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– T-2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Matchup Notes for Tennessee vs. Florida