TCU vs North Carolina: Prediction, Odds, Betting Preview

The Belichick era of North Carolina football begins this weekend.

I still can’t believe that’s a real sentence.

UNC and TCU will play a Monday night capstone for Week 1 of the 2025 college football season, and very few people in the United States know what to expect from the Tar Heels. 

That includes me., guys. But I guess I’ll do my best here with a short preview of the season’s opening foray into North Carolina football odds. 

TCU vs North Carolina Odds

• Point Spread: TCU -3.5
• Moneyline: TCU -175  |  North Carolina +145
• Over/Under: 54.5

TCU vs North Carolina Preview

It’s probably easier to explain what we do know about North Carolina than what we don’t. For the most part, head coach Bill Belichick has deployed his trademark secrecy in discussing the shape of the 2025 Tar Heels, which rebounds to his advantage. TCU’s coaches have admitted they’re grasping at straws, watching old film of Cam Newton from his short time with the New England Patriots. 

That means this is probably not an awesome game to attempt a bet for. In my opinion, there are many better options on the board for Week 1.

Still, what I can reasonably predict is that former South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez will start at quarterback for the Heels. Lopez was brought in after spring ball, meaning the UNC coaching staff didn’t like what they had at quarterback this year and took steps to remedy the problem. 

Sorry, Max Johnson.

Lopez is a good quarterback who will have fair weapons, though nothing like what UNC had last year with current Los Angeles Chargers running back Omarion Hampton. For TCU, Josh Hoover is an experienced quarterback who runs the offense effectively. To me, Over 54.5 is an interesting approach to the game, especially since the number has come in from 59. 

As for a side, I would lean toward TCU despite the potential variance with North Carolina’s unknown on-field product. North Carolina’s defense was dreadful in 2024 – as a result, the Heels were 0-7 ATS at home because they were so consistently behind the market expectation. 

UNC is also 1-5 ATS against Big 12 opponents. 

UNC could be anything. But TCU is a consistent, above-average team in a deep Big 12, and a whole lot of UNC outcomes could come in below that. 

TCU vs North Carolina Prediction

I don’t like any bets in this game, but I would lean toward TCU and the over. 

TCU vs North Carolina Prediction: Pass (Lean TCU -3.5; Over 54.5)