- TCU is a -3.5 point favorite vs. North Carolina
- TCU vs. North Carolina Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN
The TCU (0-0) visit Kenan Stadium to take on the North Carolina (0-0) on Sep. 1 in Chapel Hill, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT.
TCU is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-102).
The TCU vs. North Carolina Over/Under is 56.5 total points.
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TCU vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| TCU | -3.5 -102 | 56.5 -115 | -160 |
| North Carolina | +3.5 -118 | 56.5 -105 | +135 |
TCU vs North Carolina Prediction:
The winning team model predicts TCU will win this game with 58.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both TCU and North Carolina, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
TCU vs North Carolina Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts North Carolina will cover the spread with 80.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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TCU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- TCU have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 7 games (+7.10 Units / 89% ROI)
- TCU has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- TCU has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- TCU have covered the 1H Spread in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
North Carolina Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- North Carolina have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.70 Units / 7% ROI)
TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record
TCU was 6-7 against the spread last college football season (-1.75 Units / -12.24% ROI).
- TCU is 8-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.2 Units / -10.26% ROI
- TCU is 7-6 when betting the Over for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI
- TCU is 6-7 when betting the Under for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
TCU: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina
TCU is 2-9 (.182) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-24th-worst in FBS; Average: .350
TCU is 13-5 (.722) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 35th-best in FBS; Average: .619
TCU was 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2024 season– 9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .647
TCU is 12-5 (.706) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .603
Matchup Notes for TCU vs. North Carolina
Gio Lopez (UNC) completed 66.0% of passes (206/312) last season — 10th-best of Qualified Quarterbacks. TCU’s defense allowed a completion rate of just 57.6% last season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.
Gio Lopez (UNC) completed 66.0% of passes (206/312) last season — 10th-best of Qualified Quarterbacks. TCU’s defense allowed a completion rate of just 57.6% last season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Kobe Paysour (UNC) gained 330 yards on 19 receptions (17.4 YPR) last season — 3rd-best of Qualified ACC Skill Players. TCU’s defense allowed just 10.4 Yards Per Reception last season — best among Big 12 defenses.
TCU was targeted 472 times last season — 2nd-most among Big 12 skill players. North Carolina’s defense allowed 261 receiving yards last season — fewest among P5 defenses.
TCU’s WRs was targeted 359 times last season — 2nd-most among Big 12 WRs. North Carolina’s defense allowed 261 receiving yards last season — 2nd-fewest among FBS defenses.
TCU’s RBs averaged just 5.5 yards after the catch last season — T-7th-worst among FBS RBs. North Carolina’s defense allowed just 9.7 RAC last season — T-2nd-best among P5 defenses.
TCU Offensive Stats & Trends
TCU WRs caught 47 of 61 passes(77% Reception Pct) in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 58%
TCU WRs averaged 19.2 receptions per game (250/13) in the 2024 season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 12.7
TCU WRs averaged 12.1 yards per target (740 yards/61 targets) in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 7.6
TCU Skill Players averaged 15.7 receptions per game (204/13) in the 1st half in the 2024 season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 10.2
TCU RBs have averaged 3.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (226 yards / 67 touches) on 3rd down since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.7
TCU Defensive Stats & Trends
TCU allowed just 10.4 yards per completion (2,407 yards/232 completions) in the 2024 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 12.1
TCU opponents has averaged 26.8 Passing Attempts per TD (803 Pass Attempts/30 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 19.9
TCU tackled opponents for a loss on just 63 of 496 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) in the 2024 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.
TCU tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 34 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2024 season– T-3rd-worst in the Big 12; Average: 11%.
TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 19 of 154 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 5th-worst in the Big 12; Average: 14%.
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