Syracuse vs Tennessee Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 1

Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava (8) throws to a receiver during warmups before an NCAA college football game against Vanderbilt Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023, in Knoxville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Wade Payne)
(AP Photo/Wade Payne)
  • Tennessee is a -14 point favorite vs. Syracuse
  • Syracuse vs. Tennessee Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
  • TV Channel: ABC

The Syracuse (0-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Tennessee (0-0) on Aug. 30 in Atlanta, GA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Tennessee is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -14 (-110).

The Syracuse vs. Tennessee Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

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Syracuse vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Syracuse+14 -11050.5 -105+425
Tennessee -14 -11050.5 -115-600

Syracuse vs Tennessee Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Tennessee will win this game with 77.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Syracuse and Tennessee, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Syracuse vs Tennessee Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Syracuse will cover the spread with 76.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.



  • Syracuse has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+10.60 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Syracuse has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Syracuse has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.00 Units / 76% ROI)
  • Syracuse have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.00 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Syracuse have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.60 Units / 6% ROI)
  • Tennessee has hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.45 Units / 1% ROI)
  • Tennessee has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Tennessee has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • Tennessee has hit the Game Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Tennessee have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.90 Units / 42% ROI)

Syracuse: Keys to the Game vs. Tennessee

Syracuse is 4-8 (.333) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .452

Syracuse is 10-1 (.909) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .722

Syracuse is 12-3 (.800) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .669

Syracuse is 8-5 (.615) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .503

Tennessee: Keys to the Game vs. Syracuse

Tennessee was undefeated (9-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays in the 2024 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .656

Tennessee was undefeated (9-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays in the 2024 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .627

Tennessee was 9-3 (.750) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times in the 2024 season– T-11th-best in FBS; Average: .443

Tennessee is 19-6 (.760) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-28th-best in FBS; Average: .629

Matchup Notes for Syracuse vs. Tennessee

Tennessee gained 2,864 yards on 236 receptions (just 12.1 YPR) last season — 5th-worst among SEC skill players. Syracuse’s defense allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception last season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

Tennessee gained 2,864 yards on 236 receptions (just 12.1 YPR) last season — 5th-worst among SEC skill players. Syracuse’s defense allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.

Tennessee’s TEs had 7 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — T-2nd-most among SEC TEs. Syracuse’s defense allowed 15 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — T-3rd-most among ACC defenses.

Syracuse’s TEs had 80 receptions in 13 games (6.2 per game) last season — best among ACC TEs. Tennessee’s defense allowed just 17.2 receptions per game last season — 5th-best among SEC defenses.

Syracuse’s QBs threw for 4,810 passing yards in 13 games (370.0 YPG) last season — best among FBS teams. Tennessee’s defense allowed just 189.3 passing yards per game last season — 5th-best among SEC defenses.

Syracuse’s offense threw for 4,810 passing yards in 13 games (370.0 YPG) last season — best among FBS offenses. Tennessee’s defense allowed just 189.3 passing yards per game last season — 29th-best among FBS defenses.

Syracuse Offensive Stats & Trends

Syracuse’s TEs had 80 receptions in 13 games (6.2 per game) last season — best among ACC TEs. Tennessee’s defense allowed just 17.2 receptions per game last season — 5th-best among SEC defenses.

Syracuse’s QBs threw for 4,810 passing yards in 13 games (370.0 YPG) last season — best among FBS teams. Tennessee’s defense allowed just 189.3 passing yards per game last season — 5th-best among SEC defenses.

Syracuse’s offense threw for 4,810 passing yards in 13 games (370.0 YPG) last season — best among FBS offenses. Tennessee’s defense allowed just 189.3 passing yards per game last season — 29th-best among FBS defenses.

Syracuse’s TEs gained 1,003 yards on 80 receptions (12.5 YPR) last season — 4th-best among ACC TEs. Tennessee’s defense allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-best among SEC defenses.

Syracuse Skill Players were targeted 44.5 times per game (578/13) in the 2024 season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 30.2

Tennessee Offensive Stats & Trends

Tennessee WRs averaged just 9.4 yards per reception (244 yards/26 catches) in the 4th quarter in the 2024 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 14.5

Tennessee TEs caught 5 of 6 passes(83% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long in the 2024 season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 58%

Tennessee WRs have averaged just 10.2 yards per reception (590 yards/58 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 14.4

Tennessee gained 2,864 yards on 236 receptions (just 12.1 YPR) last season — 5th-worst among SEC skill players. Syracuse’s defense allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception last season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

Tennessee gained 2,864 yards on 236 receptions (just 12.1 YPR) last season — 5th-worst among SEC skill players. Syracuse’s defense allowed just 11.1 Yards Per Reception last season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.

Syracuse Defensive Stats & Trends

Syracuse allowed a Completion Pct of just 29% (8 completions/28 attempts) on third and 10+ yards to go in the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%

Syracuse has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 1 of 107 attempts (1%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%

Syracuse has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 1 of 107 attempts (1%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 9%

Syracuse allowed a Completion Pct of just 29% (8 completions/28 attempts) on third and 10+ yards to go in the 2024 season– best in FBS; Average: 56%

Syracuse did not allow a pass completion for 20+ yards (54 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%

Tennessee Defensive Stats & Trends

Tennessee has tackled opponents for a loss on 194 of 918 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 17%.

Tennessee allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 2 of 381 attempts (1%) in the 2024 season– best in the SEC; Average: 2%

Tennessee opponents averaged 6.8 Passing Attempts per TD (34 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2024 season– 5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Tennessee tackled opponents for a loss on 97 of 455 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) in the 2024 season– 5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Tennessee has allowed passes of 40+ yards on just 8 of 795 attempts (1%) since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 2%



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