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Stanford vs North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:53 AM

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New North Carolina football coach Bill Belichick holds up a UNC branded sleeveless hoodie presented to him during an NCAA college football news conference announcing his hiring, Dec. 12, 2024, in Chapel Hill, N.C.

(AP Photo/Ben McKeown)

North Carolina is a -7.5 point favorite vs. Stanford
Stanford vs. North Carolina Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
TV Channel: CW

Stanford (3-6) visit Kenan Stadium to take on North Carolina (3-5) on Nov. 8 in Chapel Hill, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30pm EST.

North Carolina is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-105).

The Stanford vs. North Carolina Over/Under is 41.5 total points.

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Stanford vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Stanford	+7.5 -115	41.5 -110	230
North Carolina	-7.5 -105	41.5 -110	-285

Stanford vs North Carolina Prediction:

The winning team model predicts North Carolina will win this game with 73.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Stanford and North Carolina, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Stanford vs North Carolina Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Stanford will cover the spread with 51.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Stanford Best Bets Today

Stanford has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+13.95 Units / 112% ROI)
Stanford has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 12 games (+12.80 Units / 102% ROI)
Stanford have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 41% ROI)
Stanford has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.95 Units / 37% ROI)
Stanford has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.65 Units / 20% ROI)

North Carolina Best Bets Today

North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.70 Units / 36% ROI)
North Carolina has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.81 Units / 42% ROI)
North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.40 Units / 17% ROI)
North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.50 Units / 6% ROI)

Stanford Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Stanford is 2-7 against the spread this college football season (-5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI).

Stanford is 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.8 Units / 61.05% ROI
Stanford is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
Stanford is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record

North Carolina iss 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI).

North Carolina is 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -5.36% ROI
North Carolina is 1-6 when betting the Over for -5.65 Units / -63.84% ROI
North Carolina is 6-1 when betting the Under for +4.9 Units / 56% ROI

Stanford: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina

Stanford Skill Players have averaged 24.4 yards per reception (293 yards/12 catches) in short yardage situations this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3

Stanford’s WRs has 264 receptions in 21 games (just 12.6 per game) since the 2024 season — 5th-worst among ACC WRs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed just 18.6 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 4th-best among ACC defenses.

Stanford RBs did not rush for 0a TD on 184 carries (inf Carries Per TD) last season– worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.4

Stanford QBs have averaged just -5.8 Yards per Carry (-221 yards/38 carries) this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 3.2

Stanford QBs have averaged just -6.7 Yards per Carry (-127 yards/19 carries) in the 1st half this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 3.1

North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Stanford

North Carolina allowed a Completion Pct of just 22% (4 completions/18 attempts) last week– best in FBS; Average: 62%

North Carolina sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (45/387) last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

North Carolina allowed opponents to catch just 4 of 18 passes (22% Reception Pct) last week– best in FBS; Average: 63%

North Carolina sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (45/387) last season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 7%

North Carolina has allowed a Completion Pct of just 30% (7 completions/23 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%

Matchup Notes for Stanford vs. North Carolina