Southern Miss vs Arkansas St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:55 AM

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Arkansas State coach Butch Jones against Coastal Carolina during an NCAA college football game Thursday, Oct. 7, 2021, in Jonesboro, Ark.

(AP Photo/Michael Woods)

Southern Miss is a -4.5 point favorite vs. Arkansas St
Southern Mississippi vs. Arkansas State Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
TV Channel: ESPNU

Southern Mississippi (6-2) visit Centennial Bank Stadium to take on Arkansas State (5-4) on Nov. 8 in Jonesboro, AR. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Southern Miss is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Southern Mississippi vs. Arkansas State Over/Under is 56.5 total points.

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Southern Mississippi vs. Arkansas State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Southern Mississippi	-4.5 -110	56.5 -110	-190
Arkansas State	+4.5 -110	56.5 -110	155

Southern Mississippi vs Arkansas State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Southern Miss will win this game with 64.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Southern Miss and Arkansas St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Southern Mississippi vs Arkansas State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Southern Miss will cover the spread with 52.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Southern Mississippi Best Bets Today

Southern Mississippi has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.45 Units / 25% ROI)
Southern Mississippi has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 50% ROI)
Southern Miss has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Southern Mississippi has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Southern Mississippi have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.40 Units / 10% ROI)

Arkansas State Best Bets Today

Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+9.85 Units / 49% ROI)
Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.55 Units / 28% ROI)
Arkansas State have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 60% ROI)
Arkansas State has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
Arkansas State have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.55 Units / 22% ROI)

Southern Mississippi Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Southern Miss is against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

Southern Mississippi is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
Southern Mississippi is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
Southern Mississippi is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arkansas St iss 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI).

Arkansas State is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.5 Units / 44.07% ROI
Arkansas State is 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI
Arkansas State is 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI

Southern Mississippi: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State

Arkansas State was 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .632

Arkansas State was 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– 15th-best in FBS; Average: .602

Arkansas State was 7-5 (.583) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 35th-best in FBS; Average: .429

Arkansas State is 11-3 (.786) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2024 season– 24th-best in FBS; Average: .612

Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Southern Mississippi

Southern Miss Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 23.6 receptions (165 Rec/7 TDs) last season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.7

Southern Miss have averaged 18.5 yards per completion (480 yards/26 completions) on 3rd down this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11.8

Southern Miss’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.2% of 240 attempts this season — 14th-best among FBS offenses. Arkansas State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.7% of attempts this season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.

Southern Miss Skill Players have averaged 20.5 yards per reception (328 yards/16 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.6

Southern Miss were sacked on 23% of pass attempts (14/61) in the 4th quarter last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Offenses; Average: 7%

Matchup Notes for Southern Mississippi vs. Arkansas State