South Florida vs UAB Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 19, 2025, 12:29 PM

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South Florida is a -21.5 point favorite vs. UAB
South Florida vs. UAB Total (Over/Under): 69.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

South Florida (7-3) visit Protective Stadium to take on UAB (3-7) on Nov. 22 in Birmingham, AL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST.

South Florida is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -21.5 (-110).

The South Florida vs. UAB Over/Under is 69.5 total points.

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South Florida vs. UAB Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
South Florida	-21.5 -110	69.5 -110	-2000
UAB	+21.5 -110	69.5 -110	1000

South Florida vs UAB Prediction:

The winning team model predicts South Florida will win this game with 76.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both South Florida and UAB, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

South Florida vs UAB Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts South Florida will cover the spread with 50.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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South Florida Best Bets Today

South Florida has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.25 Units / 6% ROI)
South Florida has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
South Florida has hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)
South Florida have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.20 Units / 28% ROI)
South Florida have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)

UAB Best Bets Today

UAB has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+12.20 Units / 57% ROI)
UAB has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.15 Units / 24% ROI)
UAB have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 49% ROI)
UAB has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.35 Units / 18% ROI)
UAB has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)

South Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

South Florida is 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.7 Units / 24.55% ROI).

South Florida is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.3 Units / 6.22% ROI
South Florida is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
South Florida is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

UAB Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UAB iss 3-7 against the spread this college football season (-4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI).

UAB is 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.9 Units / 24.08% ROI
UAB is 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
UAB is 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI

South Florida: Keys to the Game vs. UAB

South Florida tackled opponents for a loss on 20 of 79 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) in the Red Zone last season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.

South Florida sacked opponents 7 times in the Red Zone last season– 2nd-most in FBS

South Florida allowed 343.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs last week– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 154.1

South Florida’s opponents has attempted 39.4 passes per game this season– 2nd-highest in FBS; Average: 30.6

South Florida allowed 343.0 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs last week– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 150.1

UAB: Keys to the Game vs. South Florida

UAB has tackled opponents for a loss on just 34 of 387 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

UAB has allowed 6.3 touchdowns per interception (19 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) this season– T-5th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

UAB allowed 5 rushing TDs in the Red Zone last week– 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

UAB has allowed 14.8 yards per completion (2,008 yards/136 completions) this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.8

UAB has allowed 13.3 Yards per Attempt (333 yards/25 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– worst in FBS; Average: 6.8

Matchup Notes for South Florida vs. UAB