- TCU is a -7 point favorite vs. SMU
- SMU vs. TCU Total (Over/Under): 64.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
SMU (2-1) visit Amon G. Carter Stadium to take on TCU (2-0) on Sep. 20 in Fort Worth, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
TCU is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).
The SMU vs. TCU Over/Under is 64.5 total points.
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SMU vs. TCU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| SMU | +7 -110 | 64.5 -105 | 200 |
| TCU | -7 -110 | 64.5 -115 | -250 |
SMU vs TCU Prediction:
The winning team model predicts TCU will win this game with 80.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both SMU and TCU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
SMU vs TCU Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts TCU will cover the spread with 72.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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SMU Best Bets Today
- SMU has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- SMU has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- SMU have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- SMU has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
TCU Best Bets Today
- TCU has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- TCU have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- TCU have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 92% ROI)
- TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.50 Units / 19% ROI)
SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record
SMU is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
- SMU is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -1.2% ROI
- SMU is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- SMU is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record
TCU iss 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- TCU is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 57.14% ROI
- TCU is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
- TCU is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
SMU: Keys to the Game vs. TCU
SMU was 8-3 (.727) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481
SMU is 8-2 (.800) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2024 season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .613
SMU was 10-2 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: .602
SMU was 4-1 (.800) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .468
TCU: Keys to the Game vs. SMU
TCU was undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .688
TCU is undefeated (9-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2024 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .718
TCU was 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: .602
TCU was 7-4 (.636) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .442
Matchup Notes for SMU vs. TCU
TCU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.5% of 69 attempts this season — T-20th-best among FBS offenses. SMU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.8% of attempts this season — 5th-worst among P5 defenses.
TCU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.5% of 69 attempts this season — T-20th-best among FBS offenses. SMU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.8% of attempts this season — 13th-worst among FBS defenses.
TCU’s QBs has thrown for 645 passing yards in 2 games (322.5 YPG) this season — 18th-best among FBS teams. SMU’s defense has allowed 319.7 passing yards per game this season — worst among ACC defenses.
SMU’s offense has thrown for 836 passing yards in 3 games (278.7 YPG) this season — 31st-best among FBS offenses. TCU’s defense has allowed 224.0 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among Big 12 defenses.
SMU’s QBs has thrown for 836 passing yards in 3 games (278.7 YPG) this season — 31st-best among FBS teams. TCU’s defense has allowed 224.0 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among Big 12 defenses.
SMU has gained 836 yards on 62 receptions (13.5 YPR) this season — T-26th-best among FBS skill players. TCU’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.
SMU Offensive Stats & Trends
SMU TEs had 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
SMU TEs had 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-most among Power Conference Teams
SMU’s offense has thrown for 836 passing yards in 3 games (278.7 YPG) this season — 31st-best among FBS offenses. TCU’s defense has allowed 224.0 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among Big 12 defenses.
SMU’s QBs has thrown for 836 passing yards in 3 games (278.7 YPG) this season — 31st-best among FBS teams. TCU’s defense has allowed 224.0 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among Big 12 defenses.
SMU Skill Players averaged 21.5 yards per reception (344 yards/16 catches) in close and late situations last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.1
TCU Offensive Stats & Trends
TCU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.5% of 69 attempts this season — T-20th-best among FBS offenses. SMU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.8% of attempts this season — 5th-worst among P5 defenses.
TCU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.5% of 69 attempts this season — T-20th-best among FBS offenses. SMU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.8% of attempts this season — 13th-worst among FBS defenses.
TCU’s QBs has thrown for 645 passing yards in 2 games (322.5 YPG) this season — 18th-best among FBS teams. SMU’s defense has allowed 319.7 passing yards per game this season — worst among ACC defenses.
TCU’s QBs has thrown for 645 passing yards in 2 games (322.5 YPG) this season — 18th-best among FBS teams. SMU’s defense has allowed 319.7 passing yards per game this season — worst among P5 defenses.
TCU’s offense has thrown for 645 passing yards in 2 games (322.5 YPG) this season — 18th-best among FBS offenses. SMU’s defense has allowed 319.7 passing yards per game this season — worst among ACC defenses.
SMU Defensive Stats & Trends
SMU has allowed 18 receptions for 20+ yards this season– most among Power Conference Teams
SMU defense has allowed 18 completions for 20 or more yards this season– most in FBS
SMU defense has allowed 18 completions for 20 or more yards this season– most among Power Conference Teams
SMU has allowed 18 receptions for 20+ yards this season– most in FBS
SMU has allowed 285.3 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 137.7
TCU Defensive Stats & Trends
TCU had no interceptions and 2 TD passes allowed last week– T-4th-worst in the Big 12; Average: 0.7
TCU allowed passes of 40+ yards on 2 of 29 attempts (7%) last week– worst in the Big 12; Average: 2%
TCU has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 3 of 12 attempts (25%) on 3rd and long this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 6%
TCU allowed opponents to catch 22 of 29 passes (76% Reception Pct) last week– worst in the Big 12; Average: 58%
TCU tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 34 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– T-3rd-worst in the Big 12; Average: 11%.
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