SMU vs Boston College Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:55 AM

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Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos (1) rolls out during the second half of an NCAA college football game against UConn Saturday, Oct. 28, 2023 in Boston. (AP Photo/Mark Stockwell)

(AP Photo/Mark Stockwell)

SMU is a -10.5 point favorite vs. Boston College
SMU vs. Boston College Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
TV Channel: ACCN

SMU (6-3) visit Alumni Stadium to take on Boston College (1-8) on Nov. 8 in Chestnut Hill, MA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

SMU is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).

The SMU vs. Boston College Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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SMU vs. Boston College Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
SMU	-10.5 -110	55.5 -115	-450
Boston College	+10.5 -110	55.5 -105	350

SMU vs Boston College Prediction:

The winning team model predicts SMU will win this game with 78.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both SMU and Boston College, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

SMU vs Boston College Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Boston College will cover the spread with 53.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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SMU Best Bets Today

SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.10 Units / 59% ROI)
SMU has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 36% ROI)
SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.55 Units / 35% ROI)
SMU has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.20 Units / 4% ROI)
SMU has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.70 Units / 34% ROI)

Boston College Best Bets Today

Boston College has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.60 Units / 47% ROI)
Boston College has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.76 Units / 42% ROI)
Boston College has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)
Boston College has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.60 Units / 30% ROI)
Boston College have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.40 Units / 36% ROI)

SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

SMU is 3-6 against the spread this college football season (-3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI).

SMU is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 3.95% ROI
SMU is 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI
SMU is 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI

Boston College Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Boston College iss 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.5 Units / -15.08% ROI).

Boston College is 1-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.7 Units / -21.64% ROI
Boston College is 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 17.17% ROI
Boston College is 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / -25.25% ROI

SMU: Keys to the Game vs. Boston College

Boston College is 1-9 (.100) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2024 season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: .421

Boston College was 2-6 (.250) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Boston College is 2-12 (.143) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2024 season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: .424

Boston College was 1-4 (.200) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs last season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .459

Boston College: Keys to the Game vs. SMU

SMU TEs averaged 22.5 yards per reception (293 yards/13 catches) in the 4th quarter last season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.3

SMU TEs had 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

SMU’s QBs has thrown for 2,128 passing yards in 8 games (266.0 YPG) this season — 30th-best among FBS teams. Boston College’s defense has allowed 247.6 passing yards per game this season — 5th-worst among ACC defenses.

SMU WRs have fumbled 7 times this season– most among FBS Teams

SMU TEs had 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– T-2nd-most among Power Conference Teams

Matchup Notes for SMU vs. Boston College