SEC Championship Scenarios: Every Remaining Possibility for SEC Football Winner

Georgia tight end Oscar Delp (4) reacts to a catch against Mississippi State during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Starkville, Miss., Saturday, Nov. 8, 2025.
(AP Photo/James Pugh)

Only four teams remain alive for the 2025 SEC championship: Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss.

As one of the last undefeated teams left in college football, Texas A&M is in the driver’s seat to appear in the title game. It can clinch its appearance by beating the rival Longhorns in Week 14.

Even if the Aggies lose that game, they can still play for the title if other results go their way during rivalry week. They would need Auburn to beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl and Mississippi State to beat Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl.

Alabama, too, just needs to win out. The Crimson Tide now have a ding on the resume after the Week 12 loss to Oklahoma, but they still have the inside track because one key conference tiebreaker involves SEC opponent winning percentage. That currently appears to favor Alabama.

Georgia needs some help. The cleanest path would be for Alabama or Texas A&M to lose in Week 14. If either does, Georgia would jump into that title picture. 

Since Georgia is actually second in the SEC conference odds table right now, it seems more likely than not that at least one of these scenarios may occur.

Ole Miss is hypothetically still alive, but the Rebels would need a major hand just to qualify for the game. They need Texas A&M and Alabama to both lose in Week 14, and they need to take care of business at Mississippi State. 

SEC Championship Scenarios

TeamControls Its Destiny?Needs
Texas A&MYesWin Out
GeorgiaNoWin Out; Loss from Either Alabama OR Texas A&M
AlabamaYesWin Out; Maintain Favorable Opp. Win Percentage
Ole MissNoWin Out; Losses from Alabama AND Texas A&M

SEC Football Tiebreakers 

  • 1) Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
  • 2) Record versus all common conference opponents among the tied teams
  • 3) Record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent in the conference standings, and proceeding through the conference standings among the tied teams
  • 4) Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams
  • 5) Capped relative total scoring margin (see Appendix A) per SportSource Analytics versus all Conference opponents among the tied teams
  • 6) Random draw of the tied teams

SEC Championship Odds

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About the Author Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.