San Diego St vs N Illinois Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 5

FILE -Northern Illinois head coach Thomas Hammock walks the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Kent State, Saturday, Dec. 4, 2021, in Detroit. Northern Illinois went from lovable underdog to leader of the Mid-American Conference pack in one season. Keeping the title will be no walk in the park for the Huskies. After going from winless in 2020 to conference champs in 2021, The Huskies will try to become just the third team since 2001 to win consecutive conference crowns and the first since Northern Illinois last achieved the feat in 2011-12. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio, File)
(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio, File)
  • San Diego St is a -2.5 point favorite vs. N Illinois
  • San Diego State vs. Northern Illinois Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN+

San Diego State (2-1) visit Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium to take on Northern Illinois (1-2) on Sep. 27 in DeKalb, IL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

San Diego St is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The San Diego State vs. Northern Illinois Over/Under is 42.5 total points.

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San Diego State vs. Northern Illinois Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
San Diego State-2.5 -11542.5 -110-135
Northern Illinois +2.5 -10542.5 -110110

San Diego State vs Northern Illinois Prediction:

The winning team model predicts San Diego State will win this game with 74.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both San Diego St and N Illinois, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

San Diego State vs Northern Illinois Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts San Diego State will cover the spread with 74.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • San Diego State has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • San Diego State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 56% ROI)
  • San Diego State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.65 Units / 28% ROI)
  • San Diego State have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.30 Units / 17% ROI)
  • San Diego State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Northern Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.45 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Northern Illinois has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Northern Illinois has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 10% ROI)

San Diego State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

San Diego St is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • San Diego State is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 32.31% ROI
  • San Diego State is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • San Diego State is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Northern Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record

N Illinois iss 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Northern Illinois is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -14.49% ROI
  • Northern Illinois is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
  • Northern Illinois is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI

San Diego State: Keys to the Game vs. Northern Illinois

San Diego State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.0% of 452 attempts since the 2024 season — T-17th-worst among FBS offenses. Northern Illinois’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.5% of attempts since the 2024 season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

San Diego State’s QBs has thrown for 2,977 passing yards in 15 games (just 198.5 YPG) since the 2024 season — 33rd-worst among FBS teams. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 175.7 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.

San Diego State WRs had no touchdowns on 6 receptions in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9

San Diego State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.0% of 452 attempts since the 2024 season — T-17th-worst among FBS offenses. Northern Illinois’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.5% of attempts since the 2024 season — 5th-best among NonP5 defenses.

San Diego State’s RBs has rushed for 1,824 yards on 406 carries (just 4.5 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-20th-worst among FBS RBs. Northern Illinois’s defense have allowed just 4.4 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. San Diego State

Northern Illinois’s WRs has gained 254 yards on 25 receptions (just 10.2 YPR) this season — 9th-worst among FBS WRs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception this season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois have thrown 0 TDs on 134 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.1

Northern Illinois has gained 342 yards on 43 receptions (just 8.0 YPR) this season — 2nd-worst among FBS skill players. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception this season — T-2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Northern Illinois’s WRs has averaged just 10.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among FBS WRs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 11.8 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.0% of 440 attempts since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among FBS offenses. San Diego State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.2% of attempts since the 2024 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

Matchup Notes for San Diego State vs. Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois’s WRs has gained 254 yards on 25 receptions (just 10.2 YPR) this season — 9th-worst among FBS WRs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception this season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois have thrown 0 TDs on 134 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.1

Northern Illinois has gained 342 yards on 43 receptions (just 8.0 YPR) this season — 2nd-worst among FBS skill players. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception this season — T-2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Northern Illinois’s WRs has averaged just 10.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among FBS WRs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 11.8 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.0% of 440 attempts since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among FBS offenses. San Diego State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.2% of attempts since the 2024 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

San Diego State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.0% of 452 attempts since the 2024 season — T-17th-worst among FBS offenses. Northern Illinois’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.5% of attempts since the 2024 season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

San Diego State’s QBs has thrown for 2,977 passing yards in 15 games (just 198.5 YPG) since the 2024 season — 33rd-worst among FBS teams. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 175.7 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.

San Diego State WRs had no touchdowns on 6 receptions in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9

San Diego State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.0% of 452 attempts since the 2024 season — T-17th-worst among FBS offenses. Northern Illinois’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.5% of attempts since the 2024 season — 5th-best among NonP5 defenses.

San Diego State’s RBs has rushed for 1,824 yards on 406 carries (just 4.5 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-20th-worst among FBS RBs. Northern Illinois’s defense have allowed just 4.4 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

San Diego State Offensive Stats & Trends

San Diego State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.0% of 452 attempts since the 2024 season — T-17th-worst among FBS offenses. Northern Illinois’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.5% of attempts since the 2024 season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

San Diego State’s QBs has thrown for 2,977 passing yards in 15 games (just 198.5 YPG) since the 2024 season — 33rd-worst among FBS teams. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 175.7 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.

San Diego State WRs had no touchdowns on 6 receptions in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9

San Diego State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.0% of 452 attempts since the 2024 season — T-17th-worst among FBS offenses. Northern Illinois’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.5% of attempts since the 2024 season — 5th-best among NonP5 defenses.

San Diego State’s RBs has rushed for 1,824 yards on 406 carries (just 4.5 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-20th-worst among FBS RBs. Northern Illinois’s defense have allowed just 4.4 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends

Northern Illinois’s WRs has gained 254 yards on 25 receptions (just 10.2 YPR) this season — 9th-worst among FBS WRs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception this season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois have thrown 0 TDs on 134 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.1

Northern Illinois has gained 342 yards on 43 receptions (just 8.0 YPR) this season — 2nd-worst among FBS skill players. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception this season — T-2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Northern Illinois’s WRs has averaged just 10.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among FBS WRs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 11.8 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.0% of 440 attempts since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among FBS offenses. San Diego State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.2% of attempts since the 2024 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

San Diego State Defensive Stats & Trends

San Diego State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.0% of 452 attempts since the 2024 season — T-17th-worst among FBS offenses. Northern Illinois’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.5% of attempts since the 2024 season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

San Diego State’s QBs has thrown for 2,977 passing yards in 15 games (just 198.5 YPG) since the 2024 season — 33rd-worst among FBS teams. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 175.7 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.

San Diego State WRs had no touchdowns on 6 receptions in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9

San Diego State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.0% of 452 attempts since the 2024 season — T-17th-worst among FBS offenses. Northern Illinois’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.5% of attempts since the 2024 season — 5th-best among NonP5 defenses.

San Diego State’s RBs has rushed for 1,824 yards on 406 carries (just 4.5 YPC) since the 2024 season — T-20th-worst among FBS RBs. Northern Illinois’s defense have allowed just 4.4 YPC to RBs since the 2024 season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois Defensive Stats & Trends

Northern Illinois’s WRs has gained 254 yards on 25 receptions (just 10.2 YPR) this season — 9th-worst among FBS WRs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception this season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois have thrown 0 TDs on 134 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.1

Northern Illinois has gained 342 yards on 43 receptions (just 8.0 YPR) this season — 2nd-worst among FBS skill players. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception this season — T-2nd-best among NonP5 defenses.

Northern Illinois’s WRs has averaged just 10.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among FBS WRs. San Diego State’s defense has allowed just 11.8 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.0% of 440 attempts since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among FBS offenses. San Diego State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.2% of attempts since the 2024 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.


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