- Western Kentucky is a -10.5 point favorite vs. Sam Houston St
- Sam Houston State vs. Western Kentucky Total (Over/Under): 61.5 points
- TV Channel: CBSN
The Sam Houston State (0-0) visit Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium to take on the Western Kentucky (0-0) on Aug. 23 in Bowling Green, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.
Western Kentucky is a betting favorite in Week 0, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).
The Sam Houston State vs. Western Kentucky Over/Under is 61.5 total points.
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Sam Houston State vs. Western Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Sam Houston State | +10.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +320 |
| Western Kentucky | -10.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -425 |
Sam Houston State vs Western Kentucky Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Western Kentucky will win this game with 72.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Sam Houston St and Western Kentucky, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Sam Houston State vs Western Kentucky Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Sam Houston will cover the spread with 78.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Sam Houston State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Sam Houston State has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+11.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Sam Houston State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Sam Houston State has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Sam Houston State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Sam Houston State have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)
Western Kentucky Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Western Kentucky has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Western Kentucky have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Western Kentucky have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.40 Units / 12% ROI)
Sam Houston State: Keys to the Game vs. Western Kentucky
Sam Houston was undefeated (9-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2024 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .553
Sam Houston was 10-2 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times in the 2024 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .528
Sam Houston is 1-8 (.111) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: .350
Sam Houston was 6-1 (.857) when making 7 or more explosive plays in the 2024 season– 9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .592
Western Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Sam Houston State
Western Kentucky was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays in the 2024 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .606
Western Kentucky is 14-6 (.700) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-40th-best in FBS; Average: .629
Western Kentucky is 1-7 (.125) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .430
Western Kentucky is 9-4 (.692) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .595
Matchup Notes for Sam Houston State vs. Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky’s QBs threw for 3,598 passing yards in 14 games (257.0 YPG) last season — 34th-best among FBS teams. Sam Houston’s defense allowed just 177.0 passing yards per game last season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s offense threw for 3,705 passing yards in 14 games (264.6 YPG) last season — 26th-best among FBS offenses. Sam Houston’s defense allowed just 177.0 passing yards per game last season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s QBs has thrown for 7,396 passing yards in 27 games (273.9 YPG) since the 2023 season — 16th-best among FBS teams. Sam Houston’s defense has allowed just 202.2 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 27th-best among FBS defenses.
Sam Houston’s offense threw for 2,186 passing yards in 13 games (just 168.2 YPG) last season — 12th-worst among FBS offenses. Western Kentucky’s defense allowed just 176.0 passing yards per game last season — 10th-best among FBS defenses.
Sam Houston’s QBs has thrown for 4,725 passing yards in 25 games (just 189.0 YPG) since the 2023 season — 21st-worst among FBS teams. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 201.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS defenses.
Sam Houston’s offense has thrown for 4,854 passing yards in 25 games (just 194.2 YPG) since the 2023 season — 27th-worst among FBS offenses. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 201.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS defenses.
Sam Houston State Offensive Stats & Trends
Sam Houston TEs had no touchdowns on 15 receptions in the 2024 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.6
Sam Houston’s offense threw for 2,186 passing yards in 13 games (just 168.2 YPG) last season — 12th-worst among FBS offenses. Western Kentucky’s defense allowed just 176.0 passing yards per game last season — 10th-best among FBS defenses.
Sam Houston’s QBs has thrown for 4,725 passing yards in 25 games (just 189.0 YPG) since the 2023 season — 21st-worst among FBS teams. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 201.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS defenses.
Sam Houston’s offense has thrown for 4,854 passing yards in 25 games (just 194.2 YPG) since the 2023 season — 27th-worst among FBS offenses. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 201.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS defenses.
Sam Houston’s offense has thrown for 4,854 passing yards in 25 games (just 194.2 YPG) since the 2023 season — 27th-worst among FBS offenses. UNLV’s defense has allowed 244.5 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends
Western Kentucky’s QBs threw for 3,598 passing yards in 14 games (257.0 YPG) last season — 34th-best among FBS teams. Sam Houston’s defense allowed just 177.0 passing yards per game last season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s offense threw for 3,705 passing yards in 14 games (264.6 YPG) last season — 26th-best among FBS offenses. Sam Houston’s defense allowed just 177.0 passing yards per game last season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s QBs has thrown for 7,396 passing yards in 27 games (273.9 YPG) since the 2023 season — 16th-best among FBS teams. Sam Houston’s defense has allowed just 202.2 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 27th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s WRs had 208.5 receiving yards per game last season — 20th-best among FBS WRs. Sam Houston’s defense allowed just 177.0 receiving yards per game last season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s WRs had 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-24th-best among FBS WRs. Sam Houston’s defense allowed just 1.1 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.
Sam Houston State Defensive Stats & Trends
Sam Houston opponents averaged 13.5 Passing Attempts per TD (27 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 3.8
Sam Houston allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on just 5 of their 475 carries (1%) in the 2024 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4%
Sam Houston opponents averaged 13.5 Passing Attempts per TD (27 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8
Sam Houston allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 24 of 398 attempts (6%) in the 2024 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%
Sam Houston allowed opponents to catch just 24 of 58 passes (41% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long in the 2024 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 55%
Western Kentucky Defensive Stats & Trends
Western Kentucky has allowed 5,550 rushing yards since the 2023 season– most in FBS
Western Kentucky’s opponents attempted just 22.9 passes per game in the 2024 season– 2nd-lowest among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 30.0
Western Kentucky’s opponents attempted just 22.9 passes per game in the 2024 season– 2nd-lowest in FBS; Average: 30.5
Western Kentucky has tackled opponents for a loss on just 131 of 1,129 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
Western Kentucky allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (21 completions/44 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go in the 2024 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%
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