- Texas is a -39.5 point favorite vs. Sam Houston St
- Sam Houston State vs. Texas Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
Sam Houston State (0-3) visit DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium to take on Texas (2-1) on Sep. 20 in Austin, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT.
Texas is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -39.5 (-115).
The Sam Houston State vs. Texas Over/Under is 51.5 total points.
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Sam Houston State vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Sam Houston State | +39.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | |
| Texas | -39.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 |
Sam Houston State vs Texas Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 90.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Sam Houston St and Texas, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Sam Houston State vs Texas Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas will cover the spread with 60.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Sam Houston State Best Bets Today
- Sam Houston has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+5.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- Sam Houston has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+5.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- Sam Houston has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Sam Houston has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Texas Best Bets Today
- Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.15 Units / 2% ROI)
- Texas has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Texas has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Texas has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+3.65 Units / 1% ROI)
- Texas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.95 Units / 16% ROI)
Sam Houston State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Sam Houston St is against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).
- Sam Houston State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
- Sam Houston State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
- Sam Houston State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI
Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas iss 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).
- Texas is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Texas is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Texas is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Sam Houston State: Keys to the Game vs. Texas
Sam Houston was 7-2 (.778) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .388
Sam Houston was undefeated (9-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .668
Sam Houston was undefeated (9-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass last season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .643
Sam Houston was undefeated (9-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– best in FBS; Average: .602
Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Sam Houston State
Texas was 13-2 (.867) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– 9th-best in FBS; Average: .575
Texas was 13-3 (.812) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– 15th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .659
Texas was 5-2 (.714) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-15th-best in FBS; Average: .429
Texas was 13-3 (.812) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush last season– 14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .647
Matchup Notes for Sam Houston State vs. Texas
Texas’s TEs has 10 receptions in 3 games (just 3.3 per game) this season — 5th-worst among SEC TEs. Sam Houston’s defense has allowed 26.3 receptions per game this season — T-3rd-worst among NonP5 defenses.
Texas’s TEs has 10 receptions in 3 games (just 3.3 per game) this season — 5th-worst among SEC TEs. Sam Houston’s defense has allowed 26.3 receptions per game this season — T-4th-worst among FBS defenses.
Texas’s WRs has gained 3,221 yards on 219 receptions (14.7 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-21st-best among FBS WRs. Sam Houston’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.
Sam Houston’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.5% of 93 attempts this season — T-18th-worst among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.1% of attempts this season — 10th-best among FBS defenses.
Sam Houston’s WRs has gained 315 yards on 30 receptions (just 10.5 YPR) this season — T-18th-worst among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Sam Houston’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.0% of 442 attempts since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.5% of attempts since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among P5 defenses.
Sam Houston State Offensive Stats & Trends
Sam Houston’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.5% of 93 attempts this season — T-18th-worst among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.1% of attempts this season — 10th-best among FBS defenses.
Sam Houston’s WRs has gained 315 yards on 30 receptions (just 10.5 YPR) this season — T-18th-worst among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Sam Houston’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.0% of 442 attempts since the 2024 season — T-3rd-worst among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.5% of attempts since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among P5 defenses.
Sam Houston’s WRs has gained 2,155 yards on 196 receptions (just 11.0 YPR) since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among FBS WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.4 Yards Per Reception since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among P5 defenses.
Sam Houston’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.5% of 93 attempts this season — T-18th-worst among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.1% of attempts this season — 2nd-best among SEC defenses.
Texas Offensive Stats & Trends
Texas QBs had 25 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down last season– most among FBS Teams
Texas WRs averaged 23.8 yards per reception (476 yards/20 catches) on 3rd and long last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8
Texas Skill Players have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations this season– most among SEC Teams
Texas Skill Players have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in close and late situations this season– T-2nd-most among Power Conference Teams
Texas QBs had 79 completions for 20 or more yards last season– T-most among FBS Teams
Sam Houston State Defensive Stats & Trends
Sam Houston opponents averaged 13.5 Passing Attempts per TD (27 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 3.8
Sam Houston has allowed 5 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-5th-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Sam Houston has no interceptions and 15 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 8.8
Sam Houston opponents averaged 13.5 Passing Attempts per TD (27 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8
Sam Houston allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 24 of 398 attempts (6%) last season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%
Texas Defensive Stats & Trends
Texas opponents averaged 54.3 Passing Attempts per TD (489 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) last season– best in FBS; Average: 20.6
Texas opponents averaged 10.2 Passing Attempts per TD (41 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone last season– best in FBS; Average: 3.9
Texas opponents has averaged 58.8 Passing Attempts per TD (588 Pass Attempts/10 Passing TDs) since the 2024 season– best in the SEC; Average: 27.1
Texas opponents has averaged 58.8 Passing Attempts per TD (588 Pass Attempts/10 Passing TDs) since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22.9
Texas opponents has averaged 11.2 Passing Attempts per TD (45 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.1
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