Sam Houston St vs Oregon St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:53 AM

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(AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)

Oregon St is a -20.5 point favorite vs. Sam Houston St
Sam Houston State vs. Oregon State Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
TV Channel: CW

Sam Houston State (0-8) visit Reser Stadium to take on Oregon State (2-7) on Nov. 8 in Corvallis, OR. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EST.

Oregon St is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -20.5 (-110).

The Sam Houston State vs. Oregon State Over/Under is 53.5 total points.

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Sam Houston State vs. Oregon State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Sam Houston State	+20.5 -110	53.5 -115	800
Oregon State	-20.5 -110	53.5 -105	-1400

Sam Houston State vs Oregon State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Oregon State will win this game with 77.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Sam Houston St and Oregon St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Sam Houston State vs Oregon State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Sam Houston will cover the spread with 50.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Sam Houston State Best Bets Today

Sam Houston has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 42% ROI)
Sam Houston State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.70 Units / 34% ROI)
Sam Houston State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.55 Units / 11% ROI)
Sam Houston State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)

Oregon State Best Bets Today

Oregon State has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
Oregon State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.50 Units / 24% ROI)
Oregon State has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.45 Units / 30% ROI)
Oregon State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Oregon State has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 8 games at home (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)

Sam Houston State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Sam Houston St is against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

Sam Houston State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
Sam Houston State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
Sam Houston State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Oregon State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oregon St iss 3-6 against the spread this college football season (-3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI).

Oregon State is 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.75 Units / -20.52% ROI
Oregon State is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
Oregon State is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Sam Houston State: Keys to the Game vs. Oregon State

Sam Houston has allowed a Completion Pct of 92% (22 completions/24 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– worst in FBS; Average: 61%

Sam Houston opponents averaged 13.5 Passing Attempts per TD (27 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8

Sam Houston has allowed 8 TDs in close and late situations this season– most in FBS

Sam Houston has allowed a Completion Pct of 73% (172 completions/235 attempts) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 62%

Sam Houston has allowed 8 TDs in close and late situations this season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Oregon State: Keys to the Game vs. Sam Houston State

Sam Houston RBs averaged 10.3 Yards per Carry (236 yards/23 carries) last week– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.9

Sam Houston TEs had no touchdowns on 15 receptions last season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.6

Sam Houston has averaged just 10.1 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-5th-worst among FBS skill players. Oregon State’s defense has allowed 13.7 RAC since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Sam Houston TEs have no touchdowns on 26 receptions since the 2024 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 9.7

Sam Houston’s offense has thrown for 1,466 passing yards in 8 games (just 183.2 YPG) this season — 24th-worst among FBS offenses. Oregon State’s defense has allowed 259.8 passing yards per game this season — 16th-worst among FBS defenses.

Matchup Notes for Sam Houston State vs. Oregon State