Sam Houston St vs New Mexico St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

BetMGM Betting Oct 02, 2025, 2:36 PM

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(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Sam Houston St is a -2.5 point favorite vs. New Mexico St
Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
TV Channel: CBSN

Sam Houston State (0-4) visit Aggie Memorial Stadium to take on New Mexico State (2-2) on Oct. 2 in Las Cruces, NM. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EDT.

Sam Houston St is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State Over/Under is 53.5 total points.

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Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Sam Houston State	-2.5 -105	53.5 -110	-125
New Mexico State	+2.5 -115	53.5 -110	105

Sam Houston State vs New Mexico State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Sam Houston will win this game with 55.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Sam Houston St and New Mexico St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Sam Houston State vs New Mexico State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts New Mexico State will cover the spread with 55.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Sam Houston State Best Bets Today

Sam Houston has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 38% ROI)
Sam Houston has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.85 Units / 50% ROI)
Sam Houston has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Sam Houston has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.40 Units / 5% ROI)

New Mexico State Best Bets Today

New Mexico State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 38% ROI)
New Mexico State has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+3.50 Units / 24% ROI)
New Mexico State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+2.90 Units / 18% ROI)
New Mexico State have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.66 Units / 21% ROI)
New Mexico State have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.30 Units / 10% ROI)

Sam Houston State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Sam Houston St is against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

Sam Houston State is when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
Sam Houston State is when betting the Over for Units / ROI
Sam Houston State is when betting the Under for Units / ROI

New Mexico State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

New Mexico St iss 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).

New Mexico State is 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 2.69% ROI
New Mexico State is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
New Mexico State is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

Sam Houston State: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico State

Sam Houston has allowed 6 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-4th-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Sam Houston has allowed 11 TD passes this season– 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Sam Houston has allowed 60 first down receptions this season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Sam Houston allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (24 completions/61 attempts) on 3rd and long last season– best in FBS; Average: 55%

Sam Houston has allowed 11 TD passes this season– T-2nd-most in FBS

New Mexico State: Keys to the Game vs. Sam Houston State

New Mexico State forced 2 fumbles on 459 carries (229.5 Carries Per Fumble) last season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 45.7

New Mexico State forced 2 fumbles on 459 carries (229.5 Carries Per Fumble) last season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 43.4

New Mexico State has forced 3 fumbles on 600 carries (200.0 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2024 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 47.2

New Mexico State has forced 3 fumbles on 600 carries (200.0 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 45.3

New Mexico State allowed passes of 40+ yards on 19 of 379 attempts (5%) last season– worst in FBS; Average: 2%

Matchup Notes for Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State