Penn State vs. Oregon: Prediction, Odds, Betting Preview

All eyes are on Happy Valley this weekend. A 2024 Big Ten championship rematch will give one national championship contender – either Penn State or Oregon – inside positioning for a return to the conference title game.

Unsurprisingly, this game was chosen for ESPN’s College GameDay schedule. It’s the second year in a row that Penn State will host.

Bettors who like what they’ve seen from the Ducks so far can get a nice number with this game’s Oregon football odds. Personally, I like a different approach. 

Penn State vs. Oregon Odds

• Point Spread: Penn State
• Moneyline: Penn State -170  |  Oregon +140
• Over/Under: 52.5

Penn State vs. Oregon Preview

In the wake of Ohio State’s national championship, it’s easy to forget that Oregon won the Big Ten last year after defeating Penn State in the conference title game. Score: 45-37.

There’s also Oregon’s regular-season game against Ohio State from last year, which is a decent analog for this game. Score: 32-31.

Oregon scored a lot of points last year, even against good defenses. And the Ducks have kept up that clip this year, ranking No. 6 in scoring offense (48 ppg) and No. 8 in total offense 530 ypg). 

Other Oregon offense stats:

• +3.56 yards/play (No. 6 nationally)
• +0.54 EPA/play (No. 4 nationally)
• 13.6% success rate (No. 16 nationally)

With numbers like that, I don’t doubt that Oregon’s offense is potent once again. But consider the arc of Oregon’s overall perception in the betting markets. The Ducks are 4-0, but all four of their early opponents have yet to beat an FBS team. The step up in competition to Penn State will be significant.

Penn State, for its part, has struggled to live up to its billing so far, at least from a market perspective. The Nittany Lions have been 0-3 against the number, and offensive slippage with a more methodical pacing appears to be the culprit. (The defense remains quite good with Abdul Carter, especially on early downs.) 

After both teams have beaten up on nobodies through the first month of the season, I am expecting the defenses to lead in this game. 

That runs contrary to what we’ve seen so far this season and at the end of last year’s regular season, so don’t expect this to be a bet that runs against the grain by Saturday. 

Penn State vs. Oregon Prediction

I am predicting Under 52.5 for Saturday’s game between Oregon and Penn State.

In evaluating a winner, Penn State has the clear advantage. They had a bye week to prepare for this game. Meanwhile, Oregon played rival Oregon State in the Civil War and must travel from the West Coast to Pennsylvania. 

A Penn State moneyline/Under same-game parlay is currently priced at +210. 

Prediction: Under 52.5