Penn St vs UCLA Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

BetMGM Betting Oct 02, 2025, 2:50 PM

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UCLA players take the field before an NCAA college football game against Utah in Pasadena, Calif., Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022. UCLA cleared a major hurdle toward joining the Big Ten Conference in 2024, getting approval for the move from the University of California Board of Regents on Wednesday, Dec. 14, 2022. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis, File)

(AP Photo/Ashley Landis)

Penn St is a -24.5 point favorite vs. UCLA
Penn State vs. UCLA Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
TV Channel: CBS | PAR+

Penn State (3-1) visit Rose Bowl to take on UCLA (0-4) on Oct. 4 in Pasadena, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Penn St is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -24.5 (-105).

The Penn State vs. UCLA Over/Under is 49.5 total points.

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Penn State vs. UCLA Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Penn State	-24.5 -105	49.5 -115	-5000
UCLA	+24.5 -115	49.5 -105	1400

Penn State vs UCLA Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 89.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Penn St and UCLA, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Penn State vs UCLA Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Penn State will cover the spread with 60.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Penn State Best Bets Today

Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.57 Units / 32% ROI)
Penn State has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.05 Units / 2% ROI)
Penn State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Penn State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 16 games (+1.10 Units / 6% ROI)
Penn State have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.85 Units / 16% ROI)

UCLA Best Bets Today

UCLA has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 36% ROI)
UCLA has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
UCLA has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.55 Units / 22% ROI)

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn St is 0-4 against the spread this college football season (-4.4 Units / -100% ROI).

Penn State is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -100% ROI
Penn State is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Penn State is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI

UCLA Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UCLA iss 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).

UCLA is 0-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.5 Units / -100% ROI
UCLA is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
UCLA is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. UCLA

Penn State allowed 10 rushing TDs on 534 carries (53.4 Carries Per TD) last season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 23.2

Penn State has tackled opponents for a loss on 4 of 10 rushing attempts (40% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: 14%.

Penn State has allowed 10 rushing TDs on 640 carries (64 Carries Per TD) since the 2024 season– best in FBS; Average: 23.5

Penn State allowed 10 rushing TDs on 534 carries (53.4 Carries Per TD) last season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 25.5

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

UCLA: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

UCLA was 5-2 (.714) when in a one score game last season– 11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .514

UCLA is 4-8 (.333) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .616

UCLA is 2-9 (.182) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2024 season– 7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .495

UCLA is 4-8 (.333) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-24th-worst in FBS; Average: .560

Matchup Notes for Penn State vs. UCLA