Oregon St vs Texas Tech Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 3

Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire looks on during the first half of an NCAA college football game against BYU Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, in Provo, Utah. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
(AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
  • Texas Tech is a -24.5 point favorite vs. Oregon St
  • Oregon State vs. Texas Tech Total (Over/Under): 61.5 points
  • TV Channel: FOX

Oregon State (0-2) visit Jones AT&T Stadium to take on Texas Tech (2-0) on Sep. 13 in Lubbock, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Texas Tech is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -24.5 (-105).

The Oregon State vs. Texas Tech Over/Under is 61.5 total points.

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Oregon State vs. Texas Tech Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Oregon State+24.5 -11561.5 -1151100
Texas Tech -24.5 -10561.5 -105-2500

Oregon State vs Texas Tech Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas Tech will win this game with 86.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Oregon St and Texas Tech, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Oregon State vs Texas Tech Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas Tech will cover the spread with 58.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Oregon State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Oregon State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Oregon State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Oregon State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+0.20 Units / 1% ROI)
  • Texas Tech has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Texas Tech has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.70 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Texas Tech have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Texas Tech have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Texas Tech has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+5.25 Units / 28% ROI)

Oregon State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oregon St is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Oregon State is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -100% ROI
  • Oregon State is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Oregon State is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI

Texas Tech Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas Tech iss 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Texas Tech is 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • Texas Tech is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
  • Texas Tech is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI

Oregon State: Keys to the Game vs. Texas Tech

Oregon State was 1-5 (.167) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492

Oregon State was 2-6 (.250) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season– T-25th-worst in FBS; Average: .454

Oregon State is 1-7 (.125) when not forcing and recovering a fumble since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .529

Oregon State was 1-5 (.167) when not forcing and recovering a fumble last season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: .460

Texas Tech: Keys to the Game vs. Oregon State

Texas Tech was 7-3 (.700) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– 11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .468

Texas Tech was 8-3 (.727) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-15th-best in FBS; Average: .442

Texas Tech is 7-1 (.875) when not losing a fumble since the 2024 season– 14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .678

Texas Tech was 8-3 (.727) when their opponent rushed more than 30 times last season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481

Matchup Notes for Oregon State vs. Texas Tech

Texas Tech’s WRs has averaged just 12.6 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among Big 12 WRs. Oregon State’s defense has allowed 13.8 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas Tech has 387 receptions in 15 games (25.8 per game) since the 2024 season — T-5th-best among FBS skill players. Oregon State’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.

Texas Tech’s WRs has 273 receptions in 15 games (18.2 per game) since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among Big 12 WRs. Oregon State’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.

Oregon State’s WRs has averaged just 12.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 31st-worst among FBS WRs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 13.0 RAC since the 2024 season — 15th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oregon State’s offense has thrown for 636 passing yards in 2 games (318.0 YPG) this season — 18th-best among FBS offenses. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed just 144.0 passing yards per game this season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Oregon State’s QBs has thrown for 619 passing yards in 2 games (309.5 YPG) this season — 20th-best among FBS teams. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed just 144.0 passing yards per game this season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Oregon State Offensive Stats & Trends

Oregon State Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 30.9 receptions (216 Rec/7 TDs) last season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.7

Oregon State Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 30.9 receptions (216 Rec/7 TDs) last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.7

Oregon State’s WRs has averaged just 12.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 31st-worst among FBS WRs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 13.0 RAC since the 2024 season — 15th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oregon State TEs have no touchdowns on 4 receptions in the Red Zone since the 2024 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.9

Oregon State’s offense has thrown for 636 passing yards in 2 games (318.0 YPG) this season — 18th-best among FBS offenses. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed just 144.0 passing yards per game this season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Texas Tech Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas Tech’s WRs has averaged just 12.6 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-4th-worst among Big 12 WRs. Oregon State’s defense has allowed 13.8 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas Tech has 387 receptions in 15 games (25.8 per game) since the 2024 season — T-5th-best among FBS skill players. Oregon State’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.

Texas Tech’s WRs has 273 receptions in 15 games (18.2 per game) since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among Big 12 WRs. Oregon State’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.

Texas Tech’s WRs has 273 receptions in 15 games (18.2 per game) since the 2024 season — 3rd-best among Power 5 WRs. Oregon State’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.

Texas Tech has 387 receptions in 15 games (25.8 per game) since the 2024 season — T-4th-best among Power 5 skill players. Oregon State’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2024 season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.

Oregon State Defensive Stats & Trends

Oregon State averaged a sack every 45.3 pass attempts (317 Pass Attempts/7 Sacks) last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.1

Oregon State did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

Oregon State has averaged a sack every 52.1 pass attempts (365 Pass Attempts/7 Sacks) since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.8

Oregon State has sacked opposing QBs on just 2% of pass attempts (7/365) since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Oregon State has sacked opposing QBs on just 2% of pass attempts (7/365) since the 2024 season– worst in FBS; Average: 7%

Texas Tech Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas Tech opponents averaged 23.4 completions per game (304 / 13) last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 18.5

Texas Tech has allowed 48.7 receiving yards per game (731/15) to RBs since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 24.7

Texas Tech allowed 4,005 Passing Yards last season– most among Power Conference Teams

Texas Tech allowed 242.2 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 161.6

Texas Tech allowed 308.1 receiving yards per game (4,005/13) last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 219.3


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