Oklahoma St vs Central Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 19, 2025, 12:34 PM

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Central Florida is a -14 point favorite vs. Oklahoma St
Oklahoma State vs. UCF Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

Oklahoma State (1-9) visit Acrisure Bounce House to take on UCF (4-6) on Nov. 22 in Orlando, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EST.

Central Florida is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -14 (-105).

The Oklahoma State vs. UCF Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

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Oklahoma State vs. UCF Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Oklahoma State	+14 -115	48.5 -110	425
UCF	-14 -105	48.5 -110	-600

Oklahoma State vs UCF Prediction:

The winning team model predicts UCF will win this game with 78.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Oklahoma St and Central Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Oklahoma State vs UCF Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Oklahoma State will cover the spread with 50.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Oklahoma State Best Bets Today

Oklahoma State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 40% ROI)
Oklahoma State has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.45 Units / 13% ROI)
Oklahoma State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.85 Units / 16% ROI)
Oklahoma State has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Oklahoma State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 1 of their last 5 away games (+0.10 Units / 2% ROI)

UCF Best Bets Today

UCF has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 52% ROI)
UCF have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.88 Units / 36% ROI)
UCF have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.75 Units / 36% ROI)
UCF has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.50 Units / 18% ROI)
UCF has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.45 Units / 5% ROI)

Oklahoma State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oklahoma St is 3-7 against the spread this college football season (-4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI).

Oklahoma State is 1-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.8 Units / -29.88% ROI
Oklahoma State is 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
Oklahoma State is 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

UCF Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Central Florida iss 4-6 against the spread this college football season (-2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI).

UCF is 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -14.16% ROI
UCF is 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
UCF is 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

Oklahoma State: Keys to the Game vs. UCF

Oklahoma State has no interceptions and 11 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in the Big 12; Average: 8.6

Oklahoma State has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 44 of 295 attempts (15%) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 9%

Oklahoma State has allowed 25 TD passes this season– most in the Big 12

Oklahoma State forced 4 fumbles on 477 carries (119.2 Carries Per Fumble) last season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 41.8

Oklahoma State has allowed 25 TD passes this season– most among Power Conference Teams

UCF: Keys to the Game vs. Oklahoma State

UCF did not record a sack (43 pass attempts) in the Red Zone last season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

UCF allowed opponents to catch 33 of 46 passes (72% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long last season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 57%

UCF allowed 3.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (107 yards / 32 touches) on 3rd and short last season– best in the Big 12; Average: 5.4

UCF allowed 5 TDs in the Red Zone last week– most in the Big 12

UCF has allowed first downs on 8% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 30%

Matchup Notes for Oklahoma State vs. UCF