Ohio State Football Preview: Buckeyes Eye Title Defense After Major Offseason Losses

Ohio State won its first national championship in 10 years in 2024, cashing in on a roster loaded with talent. Head coach Ryan Day silenced his critics by winning the last game of the season.

Thank you. Next.

Columbus still has its sightline set high. There are plenty of Buckeyes fans who are ready to wash the champagne off and start thinking about the 2025 College Football Playoff – not to mention the Big Ten Championship Game, which Ohio State didn’t even get to play in last year. 

In other words, there’s no rest for the weary.

As last year’s winner, Ohio State has dominated the college football national championship odds market for large portions of the 2025 offseason. Today, I’ll be looking at a different number in the college football futures market: the 2025 Ohio State win total. 

Ohio State Football Season Preview

One of the silliest truisms in sports: “To be the champ, you’ve got to beat the champ.”

Or, if you prefer: “The championship runs through X team.”

That’s dumb.

Ohio State won the 2024 national championship. But that team has now shed its quarterback, both its coordinators, and 15 NFL Draft picks. This year’s squad is a very different team. 

I’m not here to tell you the Buckeyes are going to suck. But if you expect the team that takes the field in Week 1 against Texas to look like the reigning national champion, you’re going to be in for a rough surprise by the second quarter.

On offense, Ohio State maintains a great group of wide receivers, and the offensive line should be fine. I don’t even mind the running back room. Nothing will replace TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, but former Buckeye fans will love the power that incoming transfer CJ Donaldson runs with.

Quarterback is the big question mark here. Redshirt freshman Julian Sayin appears to be the next man up, and a lot could be decided by just how good he is. Ohio State fans need only recall the 2023 season to imagine what Ohio State could look like with strong offensive pieces around a middling quarterback.

On defense, Ohio State just will not be as strong as it was last year. The entire defensive front has plenty of talented prospects, but virtually everything in front of the secondary has been turned over. 

With Texas and Penn State looming on the schedule, and potentially tricky trips to Illinois, Washington, and Michigan, it’s hard to envision a 12-0 Ohio State at the end of November. 

Thus, the question for bettors is simple: how far is the drop-off for the latest champion to evacuate all its major talent after lifting the trophy?

Ohio State Football Win Total 2025

At the BetMGM online sportsbook, Ohio State’s win total is 10.5, with -145 juice to the under. Bettors can buy the over at +120. 

As of Aug. 19, 61% of tickets are on the Ohio State over, but 58% of the overall handle at BetMGM was on the under. 

For all the win totals and college football odds at BetMGM, make sure you check out my broader college football win totals mega-preview.

Ohio State Football Schedule Analysis

There’s a pretty straightforward case to make that Ohio State won’t be better than Texas or Penn State this year. If the Buckeyes go 0-2 in those games, that’s the under right there.

Since both games are at home, let’s also play with the idea that the Buckeyes get one of those games. Penn State hasn’t won in Columbus since 2011, so let’s imagine a scenario where Ohio State grows up a lot between now and Nov. 1. The Buckeyes beat Penn State to earn inside positioning for the Big Ten title game.

Even that doesn’t guarantee an over 10.5, since Ohio State would need to remain perfect in all its other games. 

A road trip to the Pacific Northwest resulted in a loss last year, so Washington could be dangerous. 

Illinois is the most popular sleeper pick in the Big Ten. 

I probably don’t have to remind any Ohio State fans how many games the Buckeyes have now lost to Michigan.

Even with a split in the two big games, there are still plenty of scenarios where Ohio State doesn’t make it to 11-1. 

Ohio State Football Win Total Prediction 2025

I am predicting Under 10.5 wins for Ohio State.

I just think this number is showing too much deference to Ohio State’s championship status from last year. I would make this number 9.5, juiced to the over, rather than 10.5 juiced to the under. 

Ohio State Football Win Total Prediction: Under 10.5 (-145)