Ohio St vs Purdue Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:55 AM

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(AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)

Ohio St is a -29.5 point favorite vs. Purdue
Ohio State vs. Purdue Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
TV Channel: BTN

Ohio State (8-0) visit Ross-Ade Stadium to take on Purdue (2-7) on Nov. 8 in West Lafayette, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST.

Ohio St is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -29.5 (-115).

The Ohio State vs. Purdue Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

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Ohio State vs. Purdue Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Ohio State	-29.5 -115	47.5 -105	-10000
Purdue	+29.5 -105	47.5 -115	2500

Ohio State vs Purdue Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Ohio State will win this game with 75.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Ohio St and Purdue, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Ohio State vs Purdue Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ohio State will cover the spread with 50.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Ohio State Best Bets Today

Ohio State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 12% ROI)
Ohio State have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 53% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.45 Units / 5% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the Moneyline in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 9% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.50 Units / 26% ROI)

Purdue Best Bets Today

Purdue has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Purdue has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.57 Units / 24% ROI)
Purdue has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 49% ROI)
Purdue has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.10 Units / 14% ROI)
Purdue have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.91 Units / 29% ROI)

Ohio State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ohio St is 7-1 against the spread this college football season (+5.9 Units / 67.05% ROI).

Ohio State is 7-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +7 Units / 5.37% ROI
Ohio State is 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
Ohio State is 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI

Purdue Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Purdue iss 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.6 Units / -16% ROI).

Purdue is 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.35 Units / -21.1% ROI
Purdue is 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI
Purdue is 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI

Ohio State: Keys to the Game vs. Purdue

Ohio State has allowed one passing TD (15 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 3.8

Ohio State’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 28% of PATs last season– highest in the Big Ten; Average: 8%

Ohio State has allowed 1.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (34 yards / 26 touches) in the Red Zone this season– best in FBS; Average: 3.7

Ohio State has allowed one passing TD (15 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Ohio State has allowed one passing TD (15 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 3.8

Purdue: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio State

Purdue allowed 6.8 touchdowns per interception (27 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) last season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6

Purdue has allowed 6.0 touchdowns per interception (36 TDs allowed, and 6 INT) since the 2024 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 1.5

Purdue has allowed 6.0 touchdowns per interception (36 TDs allowed, and 6 INT) since the 2024 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6

Purdue allowed 60 TDs last season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 2.6

Purdue allowed 6.8 touchdowns per interception (27 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) last season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

Matchup Notes for Ohio State vs. Purdue