Ohio St vs Michigan Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 14

BetMGM Betting Nov 28, 2025, 10:31 AM

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Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel, left, talks with head coach Sherrone Moore, right, before an NCAA college football spring game in Ann Arbor, Mich., Saturday, April 19, 2025.

(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Ohio St is a -10 point favorite vs. Michigan
Ohio State vs. Michigan Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
TV Channel: FOX

Ohio State (11-0) visit Michigan Stadium to take on Michigan (9-2) on Nov. 29 in Ann Arbor, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Ohio St is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -10 (-118).

The Ohio State vs. Michigan Over/Under is 44.5 total points.

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Ohio State vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Ohio State	-10 -118	44.5 -115	-425
Michigan	+10 -102	44.5 -105	320

Ohio State vs Michigan Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Ohio State will win this game with 76.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Ohio St and Michigan, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Ohio State vs Michigan Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ohio State will cover the spread with 57.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Ohio State Best Bets Today

Ohio State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 4% ROI)
Ohio State have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 53% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 6% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+4.50 Units / 3% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.40 Units / 26% ROI)

Michigan Best Bets Today

Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+19.90 Units / 22% ROI)
Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+9.20 Units / 9% ROI)
Michigan has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+6.80 Units / 18% ROI)
Michigan have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 59% ROI)
Michigan has hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 51% ROI)

Ohio State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ohio St is 9-2 against the spread this college football season (+6.8 Units / 56.2% ROI).

Ohio State is 10-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +10 Units / 3.7% ROI
Ohio State is 4-7 when betting the Over for -3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI
Ohio State is 7-4 when betting the Under for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI

Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan iss 4-7 against the spread this college football season (-3.7 Units / -30.58% ROI).

Michigan is 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +6 Units / 6.63% ROI
Michigan is 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
Michigan is 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Ohio State: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan

Ohio State WRs have been targeted 14 times in the 4th quarter this season– fewest among Power Conference Teams

Ohio State WRs have caught 12 of 14 passes (86% Reception Pct) in the 4th quarter this season– T-best among FBS Teams; Average: 58%

Ohio State Skill Players have caught 216 of 266 passes (81% Reception Pct) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 65%

Ohio State Skill Players have caught 23 of 26 passes (89% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 57%

Ohio State Skill Players have caught 216 of 266 passes (81% Reception Pct) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 64%

Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio State

Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 20.1

Michigan has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 50 attempts (20%) on 3rd and long this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%

Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.2

Michigan tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 33 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) on 3rd and short last season– T-32nd-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.

Michigan has tackled opponents for a loss on 13 of 55 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-best in the Big Ten; Average: 15%.

Matchup Notes for Ohio State vs. Michigan