Notre Dame vs. Miami (FL): Prediction, Odds, Betting Preview

The 27th edition of Notre Dame vs. Miami is getting the Sunday primetime treatment. The Irish and Hurricanes will play the third top 10 game of this season’s Week 1 schedule, punctuating what’s sure to be an excellent weekend of college football.

Unsurprisingly, the BetMGM online sportsbook has college football odds for this game. Here’s how I’m thinking about this game. 

Notre Dame vs. Miami (FL) Odds

• Point Spread: Notre Dame -2.5
• Moneyline: Notre Dame -135  |  Miami +115
• Over/Under: 49.5

Notre Dame vs. Miami (FL) Preview

Miami and Notre Dame have played incredibly famous games, but the rivalry hasn’t been played since 2017. So take any notes about head-to-head trends with a large grain of salt.

Instead, let’s focus on the recent (and relevant) past. Marcus Freeman and Mario Cristobal are each entering Year 4 at their respective programs, and to my eye, they’re not quite trending in the same direction.

I had questions about Freeman as a head coach, rather than just a recruiting ace, but a run to the national championship game last year seems to have retired any notion that Notre Dame’s ceiling has been lowered.

I don’t quite see the Hurricanes in that same class. Last year, Miami fielded its best team in years, yet it constantly needed to be rescued against lesser competition by eventual No. 1 draft pick Cam Ward.

Cristobal brought in former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck to replace him, thanks in part to Beck’s one-time relationship with Miami women’s basketball player Hanna Cavinder. (The two have now broken up.)

Even if you think Beck can be as good as Ward, broadly speaking, it would be hard to imagine anyone being as good in high leverage as Ward was last year. 

On the plus side, Miami’s offensive line and run game could arguably be better than it was last year. And I know new defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman quite well from his time at JMU – he’s one of the true geniuses of the sport. I have a lot of faith in the defense that the ’Canes can put out this year. 

Perhaps Miami can play to its defensive advantage on Sunday, capitalizing on the inexperience of Notre Dame’s freshman quarterback CJ Carr.

I probably lean toward Notre Dame -2.5 in this game. Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four games against top 10 opponents, and Notre Dame OC Mike Denbrock remains one of the best offensive coordinators in college football. I think the Irish will have great multiplicity in this game and will be able to go jumbo against Miami’s smaller, twitchier defense when needed.

However, I prefer a prediction in the totals market. Notre Dame is 3-0 to the under in Week 1 games under Freeman, and a Sunday primetime game with a friendly number offers another opportunity to make a strong bet with an early-season under. 

Notre Dame vs. Miami (FL) Prediction

I am predicting Under 49.5 for Sunday night’s game between Notre Dame and Miami.

Yes, I lean toward the Notre Dame football odds in the point spread market. But the top option available appears to be the under, where a 70% market handle has moved the line from its open at 53.5 all the way to 49.5. 

The 49.5 would be my final buy point.

Notre Dame vs. Miami Pick: Under 49.5