Notre Dame vs Pitt Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 14, 2025, 11:35 AM

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Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi walks along the sideline as his team plays against Virginia Tech during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022, in Pittsburgh (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

(AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

Notre Dame is a -12.5 point favorite vs. Pitt
Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

Notre Dame (7-2) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on Pittsburgh (7-2) on Nov. 15 in Pittsburgh, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Notre Dame is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-110).

The Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Notre Dame	-12.5 -110	55.5 -115	-450
Pittsburgh	+12.5 -110	55.5 -105	350

Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Notre Dame will win this game with 76.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Notre Dame and Pitt, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Notre Dame will cover the spread with 50.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Notre Dame Best Bets Today

Notre Dame has hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 15 games (+9.15 Units / 5% ROI)
Notre Dame has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Notre Dame has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+6.35 Units / 4% ROI)
Notre Dame have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.50 Units / 27% ROI)
Notre Dame has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.25 Units / 24% ROI)

Pittsburgh Best Bets Today

Pittsburgh have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Pittsburgh has hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Pittsburgh has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 10% ROI)
Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 29% ROI)
Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.15 Units / 4% ROI)

Notre Dame Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Notre Dame is 4-5 against the spread this college football season (-1.5 Units / -15.08% ROI).

Notre Dame is 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.15 Units / 2.06% ROI
Notre Dame is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
Notre Dame is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Pittsburgh Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Pitt iss 7-2 against the spread this college football season (+4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI).

Pittsburgh is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.4 Units / 12.72% ROI
Pittsburgh is 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 38.38% ROI
Pittsburgh is 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.6 Units / -46.46% ROI

Notre Dame: Keys to the Game vs. Pittsburgh

Notre Dame was undefeated (10-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .659

Notre Dame was 14-1 (.933) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: .575

Notre Dame was undefeated (11-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .632

Notre Dame was undefeated (10-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .628

Pittsburgh: Keys to the Game vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame RBs have averaged 6.4 Yards per Carry (3,859 yards/603 carries) since the 2024 season– T-2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Notre Dame Skill Players have averaged 17.6 yards per reception (1,111 yards/63 catches) on 1st down this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.5

Notre Dame RBs rushed for 4 TDs last week– T-most among FBS Teams

Notre Dame have completed passes for 20+ yards on 40 of their 213 total passing attempts (19%) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 10%

Notre Dame RBs have averaged 199.5 rushing yards per game (1,596/8) this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 124.0

Matchup Notes for Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh