North Texas vs UAB Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 12

  • North Texas is a -18.5 point favorite vs. UAB
  • North Texas vs. UAB Total (Over/Under): 69.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN+

North Texas (8-1) visit Protective Stadium to take on UAB (3-6) on Nov. 15 in Birmingham, AL. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00pm EST.

North Texas is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -18.5 (-110).

The North Texas vs. UAB Over/Under is 69.5 total points.

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North Texas vs. UAB Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
North Texas-18.5 -11069.5 -105-1000
UAB +18.5 -11069.5 -115650

North Texas vs UAB Prediction:

The winning team model predicts North Texas will win this game with 77.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both North Texas and UAB, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

North Texas vs UAB Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UAB will cover the spread with 52.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • North Texas have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.14 Units / 35% ROI)
  • North Texas has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.25 Units / 5% ROI)
  • North Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+3.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • North Texas have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • North Texas has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.75 Units / 33% ROI)
  • UAB has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+13.20 Units / 65% ROI)
  • UAB have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • UAB has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • UAB has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.05 Units / 8% ROI)
  • UAB has hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.65 Units / 11% ROI)

North Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

North Texas is 7-2 against the spread this college football season (+4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI).

  • North Texas is 8-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.65 Units / 8.97% ROI
  • North Texas is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • North Texas is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

UAB Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UAB iss 3-6 against the spread this college football season (-3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • UAB is 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.9 Units / 29.36% ROI
  • UAB is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • UAB is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

North Texas: Keys to the Game vs. UAB

North Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.9% of 318 attempts this season — 19th-best among FBS offenses. UAB’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.8% of attempts this season — 2nd-worst among NonP5 defenses.

North Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.9% of 318 attempts this season — 19th-best among FBS offenses. UAB’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.8% of attempts this season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.

North Texas WRs had 40 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-most among FBS Teams

North Texas WRs had 18 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– most among FBS Teams

North Texas has gained 2,775 yards on 218 receptions (12.7 YPR) this season — T-30th-best among FBS skill players. UAB’s defense has allowed 14.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-worst among NonP5 defenses.

UAB: Keys to the Game vs. North Texas

North Texas is 8-1 (.889) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: .591

North Texas is 8-1 (.889) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .551

North Texas is 8-1 (.889) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .601

North Texas is 13-4 (.765) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2024 season– T-15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .627

Matchup Notes for North Texas vs. UAB

North Texas is 8-1 (.889) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: .591

North Texas is 8-1 (.889) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .551

North Texas is 8-1 (.889) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .601

North Texas is 13-4 (.765) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2024 season– T-15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .627

North Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.9% of 318 attempts this season — 19th-best among FBS offenses. UAB’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.8% of attempts this season — 2nd-worst among NonP5 defenses.

North Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.9% of 318 attempts this season — 19th-best among FBS offenses. UAB’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.8% of attempts this season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.

North Texas WRs had 40 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-most among FBS Teams

North Texas WRs had 18 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– most among FBS Teams

North Texas has gained 2,775 yards on 218 receptions (12.7 YPR) this season — T-30th-best among FBS skill players. UAB’s defense has allowed 14.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-worst among NonP5 defenses.

North Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

North Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.9% of 318 attempts this season — 19th-best among FBS offenses. UAB’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.8% of attempts this season — 2nd-worst among NonP5 defenses.

North Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.9% of 318 attempts this season — 19th-best among FBS offenses. UAB’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.8% of attempts this season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.

North Texas WRs had 40 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-most among FBS Teams

North Texas WRs had 18 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– most among FBS Teams

North Texas has gained 2,775 yards on 218 receptions (12.7 YPR) this season — T-30th-best among FBS skill players. UAB’s defense has allowed 14.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-worst among NonP5 defenses.

UAB Offensive Stats & Trends

North Texas is 8-1 (.889) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: .591

North Texas is 8-1 (.889) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .551

North Texas is 8-1 (.889) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .601

North Texas is 13-4 (.765) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2024 season– T-15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .627

North Texas Defensive Stats & Trends

North Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.9% of 318 attempts this season — 19th-best among FBS offenses. UAB’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.8% of attempts this season — 2nd-worst among NonP5 defenses.

North Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.9% of 318 attempts this season — 19th-best among FBS offenses. UAB’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.8% of attempts this season — 3rd-worst among FBS defenses.

North Texas WRs had 40 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-most among FBS Teams

North Texas WRs had 18 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– most among FBS Teams

North Texas has gained 2,775 yards on 218 receptions (12.7 YPR) this season — T-30th-best among FBS skill players. UAB’s defense has allowed 14.5 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-worst among NonP5 defenses.

UAB Defensive Stats & Trends

North Texas is 8-1 (.889) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: .591

North Texas is 8-1 (.889) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .551

North Texas is 8-1 (.889) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .601

North Texas is 13-4 (.765) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2024 season– T-15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .627


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